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Moment of truth for the euro as France votes

EURO_theridgewoodblog

By Jonathan Cable | LONDON

The fate of the European Union and the euro could hang on the outcome of Sunday’s French presidential election.

The expected victory of centrist, pro-EU candidate Emmanuel Macron would be taken by markets as a sign that political risk in Europe is receding; a surprise win for far-right candidate Marine Le Pen would raise the risk that the euro zone’s number two economy could abandon the single currency and even leave the EU.

Surveys on Friday showed Macron ahead by 62 percent to 38, but investors are wary of opinion polls after recent political shocks such as Donald Trump’s election to the White House and Britain’s decision last year to leave the EU.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-weekahead-idUSKBN1811MO?il=0

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Meanwhile, Rioting Breaks Out In Sweden

Rioting Breaks Out In Sweden

by Tyler Durden
Feb 21, 2017 5:19 AM

It would appear the mainstream media (along with several celebrities and Swedish politicians) is going to be apologizing to President Trump once again.

Having spent the entire new cycle trying to ignore the immigrant crisis facing Sweden, and pin the ignorant tail on Trump, both Dagbladet and Expressen reports riots breaking out in the highly immigrant concentrated Stockholdm borough of Rinkeby, Sweden with police firing warning shots as 100s of young people throw stones and burn cars.

During the evening hundreds of young people gathered in the center of Rinkeby, well known for its high concentration of immigrants and people with immigrant ancestry.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-20/meanwhile-rioting-breaks-out-sweden?utm_content=buffer1646f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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Diner Bailout : GREECE could ditch Euro for US Dollar

EURO HUMILIATION: Germany ‘freaked out’ as Greece ‘could ditch EU currency for US DOLLAR’

GREECE could be poised to humiliate Brussels by ditching the euro and instead choosing to be tied to the US dollar, Donald Trump’s reported pick as EU ambassador has sensationally claimed.

By NICK GUTTERIDGE IN BRUSSELS
PUBLISHED: 07:15, Tue, Feb 14, 2017 | UPDATED: 08:04, Tue, Feb 14, 2017

Professor Ted Malloch revealed that senior Greek economists have enquired about the possibility of adopting the greenback if the country crashes out of the single currency.

He asserted that Athens is so desperate it is prepared to tie itself to the dollar on the same terms as the likes of Puerto Rico if it means being able to quit the eurozone.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/766811/Eurozone-crisis-Greece-ditch-euro-US-dollar-Trump-Ted-Malloch

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Germany’s Gabriel says EU break-up no longer unthinkable

torches_pitchforks

Germany’s insistence on austerity in the euro zone has left Europe more divided than ever and a break-up of the European Union is no longer inconceivable, German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel told Der Spiegel magazine.

Gabriel, whose Social Democrats (SPD) are junior partner to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives in her ruling grand coalition, said strenuous efforts by countries like France and Italy to reduce their fiscal deficits came with political risks.

“I once asked the chancellor, what would be more costly for Germany: for France to be allowed to have half a percentage point more deficit, or for Marine Le Pen to become president?” he said, referring to the leader of the far-right National Front.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-europe-idUSKBN14R0G8?il=0

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the Revolution Continues :Italian PM Matteo Renzi to resign in wake of referendum defeat

Premier Matteo Renzi

Matteo Renzi, who staked his future on winning the vote, says he takes full responsibility for the “extraordinarily clear” defeat.

Italian PM Matteo Renzi has said he will resign after losing a key referendum on constitutional reform.

Mr Renzi had staked his future on a “Yes” vote, vowing to quit if voters rejected his plans to reduce the role of the country’s Senate and take back powers from regional authorities.

The result plunges the country into political turmoil, with the effects likely to be felt on the markets and across the rest of Europe.

“The experience of my government ends here,” Mr Renzi said in a televised address to the nation after early results suggested he may have lost by as much as 20 points.

http://news.sky.com/story/italian-pm-matteo-renzi-to-resign-in-wake-of-referendum-defeat-10683879

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Le Pen victory would be ‘body blow’ to Europe: ex-British PM

France's Marine Le Pen

AFPDecember 3, 2016

New Delhi (AFP) – Britain’s former premier said Saturday the election of France’s Marine Le Pen would be a “big body blow” for Europe, saying he hoped for the victory of a mainstream party.

David Cameron said the recent rise of “anti-system, populist” and “quite extreme political parties” in western Europe did not mark the end of globalisation, but warned of the immediate need to make a “major course correction” to address related economic and cultural challenges.

“If France were to elect Marine Le Pen, that would be obviously a very big body blow for the European project,” he said at a Hindustan Times organised conference in New Delhi, hoping for a victory of “a mainstream party that can unite people behind their candidacy”.

He said the demand for and benefit of free trade, travel, specialisation, technology, innovation were not going away.

“But we do need to understand very profoundly the things that have happened, that have caused the events you have seen in Europe and the wider world in the last one year,” he added.

Cameron resigned as prime minister in June after he — a supporter and campaigner for Britain to remain in the European Union — lost a high-stakes national referendum on the very issue.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/le-pen-victory-body-blow-europe-ex-british-100556604.html

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Italy referendum result could send shockwaves through markets and DESTROY Europe

Marcello Mastroianni

THE EU’s days might be numbered with Italy about to vote on a referendum which could send shockwaves across the continent.

By SIMON OSBORNE
PUBLISHED: 10:10, Sat, Nov 12, 2016 | UPDATED: 11:32, Sat, Nov 12, 2016

Analysts believe the outcome of the ballot on constitutional reform could have massive global implications.

With many European leaders already coming under severe pressure from anti-EU parties ahead of elections next year the significance of the Italian result is huge.

Defeat for Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi could lead to even deeper social turmoil in countries already struggling with austerity, immigration problems and a growing contempt for Brussels.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/731484/Italian-referendum-shockwaves-European-Union-financial-markets

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Europe’s terror summer: will politicians now accept the reality of Islamic terrorism?

Angela Merkel

Douglas Murray

How is your Merkelsommer going? For now, Britain seems to be missing the worst. True, a couple of men of Middle Eastern appearance tried to abduct a soldier near his base in Norfolk for what was unlikely to have been an interfaith dialogue session. But Britain’s geographical good fortune, relative success in limiting weapons and our justified scepticism of the undiscriminating ‘open borders’ brigade mean that we have so far been spared the delights of what Angela Merkel’s growing army of critics refer to as her summer of terror.

It is now a fortnight since Mohammed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel shouted ‘Allahu Akbar’ and ploughed a truck along the Nice seafront, killing 84 people. The following Monday Mohammed Riyad, who said he was from Afghanistan but almost certainly came from Pakistan, screamed ‘Allahu Akbar’ while hacking with an axe at his fellow passengers on a Bavarian train. The next day another Mohammed, this time Mohamed Boufarkouch, shouted ‘Allahu Akbar’ and stabbed a Frenchwoman and her three daughters (aged eight, 12 and 14) near Montpelier. Mixing things up a little, that Friday’s shooter in Munich was a child of Iranians called Ali David Sonboly. Skip forward a couple of days and a ‘-Syrian asylum seeker’ with a machete was hacking a pregnant woman to death in Stuttgart. The next day another ‘Syrian asylum seeker’, Mohammad Daleel, carried out a suicide bombing outside a bar in Ansbach, Bavaria. And a little over 24 hours later two men shouting the name of Isis entered a church in Rouen during Mass, took the nuns and congregation hostage and slaughtered the priest with a knife.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/will-politicians-accept-reality-islamic-terrorism/

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Britain Rattles Postwar Order and Its Place as Pillar of Stability

Nigel Farage

By JIM YARDLEY, ALISON SMALE, JANE PERLEZ and BEN HUBBARDJUNE 25, 2016

LONDON — Britain’s historic vote to leave the European Union is already threatening to unravel a democratic bloc of nations that has coexisted peacefully together for decades. But it is also generating uncertainty about an even bigger issue: Is the post-1945 order imposed on the world by the United States and its allies unraveling, too?

Britain’s choice to retreat into what some critics of the vote suggest is a “Little England” status is just one among many loosely linked developments suggesting the potential for a reordering of power, economic relationships, borders and ideologies around the globe.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/26/world/europe/britain-rattles-postwar-order-and-its-place-as-pillar-of-stability.html

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Europe’s Convinced U.S. Won’t Solve Its Problems

john-kerry-theridgewoodblog

368 FEB 13, 2016 3:32 PM EST
By Josh Rogin

Europe is facing a convergence of the worst crises since World War II, and the overwhelming consensus among officials and experts here is that the U.S. no longer has the will or the ability to play an influential role in solving them.

At the Munich Security Conference, the prime topics are the refugee crisis, the Syrian conflict, Russian aggression and the potential dissolution of the European Union’s very structure. Top European leaders repeatedly lamented that 2015 saw all of Europe’s problems deepen, and unanimously predicted that in 2016 they would get even worse.

“The question of war and peace has returned to the continent,” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told the audience, indirectly referring to Russian military interventions. “We had thought that peace had returned to Europe for good.”

What was missing from the conference speeches and even the many private discussions in the hallways, compared to previous years, was the discussion of what Europe wanted or even expected the U.S. to do.

Several European officials told me that there was little expectation that President Barack Obama, in his last year in office, would make any significant policy changes to address what European governments see an existential set of crises that can’t wait for a new administration in Washington.

 

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-02-13/europe-s-convinced-u-s-won-t-solve-its-problems