DARRYL G. GREER | JUNE 2, 2017
A significant decline in the number of NJ high school graduates who will be seeking college degrees should be a major concern for the next governor and other leaders
Daryl G. Greer
New Jersey will experience about a 20 percent decline in the number of high school graduates through 2030, according to a recent report, “Knocking at the College Door,” by the Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education (WICHE.) That will mean a drop to 90,000 from a current high of about 111,000 graduates annually, and more of these students will be from lower- income families and less-prepared academically for college.
That has important economic consequences for colleges, students, businesses, and the state — which need to be considered, now.
Historically, 70 percent to 80 percent of New Jersey high school graduates enroll in college. Obviously, fewer students paying tuition places stress on colleges’ financial operations. This is especially true, because about 70 percent of public colleges’ revenue comes from student tuition and fees. Add to this increasing competition for New Jersey students from surrounding states, such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Massachusetts, which also face declining enrollments. Pile on another dilemma in a no-growth environment: New Jersey already leads the nation as the number one net exporter of college-bound students. We lose about 30,000 students annually to other states. Regional competition for well-prepared New Jersey students who are able to pay for college will be at an all-time high. Not every university in the state can compete effectively for students in this environment.
https://www.njspotlight.com/stories/17/06/01/op-ed-new-jersey-s-coming-college-enrollment-crisis/
