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Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment

media bias

By Jonathan Easley

Pollsters and election modelers suffered an industry-shattering embarrassment at the hands ofDonald Trump on Tuesday night.

Trump had long said the polls were biased against him. His claims – dismissed and mocked by the experts – turned out to be true.

“It’s going to put the polling industry out of business,” said CNN anchor Jake Tapper. “It’s going to put the voter projection industry out of business.”

Going into Election Day, a strong majority of pollsters and election modelers forecast thatHillary Clinton would coast to victory, with many predicting she would sweep the battlegrounds and win north of 300 electoral votes.

The final University of Virginia Center for Politics model had Clinton winning 322 electoral votes to 216 for Trump, with Clinton winning Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – all states that she lost.

Liberals lashed out at data guru Nate Silver for giving Trump a 35 percent chance of victory heading into Election Day, claiming he was putting his thumb on the scale for Trump by making the race appear closer than it was.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/305133-pollsters-suffer-huge-embarrassment

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Rasmussen : Voters Rate Bill Clinton’s Behavior Toward Women Worse Than Trump’s

DONALD J

Thursday, October 13, 2016

the staff of the Ridgewood blog

Ridgewood NJ, Hillary Clinton jumped on the release last week of an 11-year-old video in which Donald Trump makes graphic sexual comments to say it shows her Republican rival’s demeaning attitude toward women. But Trump countered that Clinton was an enabler who allowed her husband, former President Bill Clinton, to sexually assault women for years. Voters tend to agree with Trump that Bill Clinton’s behavior was worse, but not surprisingly there’s a sharp partisan difference of opinion.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters say allegations by women who claim to have been sexually assaulted by Bill Clinton are worse than Trump’s graphic sexual comments about women. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say Trump’s comments are worse, but nearly as many (26%) think the behavior of the two men is about the same.

Rasmussen also reports that the full results from Sunday night’s debate are in, and Donald Trump has come from behind to take the lead over Hillary Clinton.

The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 41%. Yesterday, Clinton still held a four-point 43% to 39% lead over Trump, but  that was down from five points on Tuesday and her biggest lead ever of seven points on Monday.

Rasmussen polls also show most Republican voters still think top GOP leaders are hurting the party with their continuing criticism of Donald Trump and are only slightly more convinced that those leaders want Trump to be president.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 57% of Likely Republican Voters believe it is bad for their party that top Republicans continue to criticize Trump, but that’s down a bit from 62% in June. Twenty percent (20%) feel the continuing criticism is good for the party, up from 15%, while 16% now say it has no impact. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

But while 66% of Republicans felt top party leaders didn’t want Trump to be president four months ago, just 51% feel that way now. Still, only 27% believe party leaders want a Trump presidency, compared to 20% in the previous survey. Twenty-two percent (22%) are now unsure of what their party leaders want.

Among all likely voters, only 17% believe most top Republican leaders want Trump to be elected president. Sixty-two percent (62%) disagree, while 21% are not sure. These findings are little changed from June.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of all voters say it’s good for the GOP that its top leaders continue to criticize Trump, up from 26%, while 42% say it’s bad, down from 50%. Seventeen percent (17%) say such criticism has no impact on the party.

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Polls darken for Democrats

hillary-clinton-what-difference-does-it-make

By Jonathan Easley

Hillary Clinton’s once formidable lead over Donald Trump in national and battleground polls is evaporating.

Trump has pulled into the lead in Florida and Ohio, two crucial states where he has trailed Clinton for most of the race, and several states that once looked out of reach for Trump — Colorado and Virginia, among them — suddenly appear competitive.

One survey showed Trump swinging to a lead in Nevada, a state that President Obama carried with ease during both of his presidential campaigns. And a poll of Iowa, which has only gone for the GOP nominee once in the last seven elections, found Trump ahead by 8 points.

The swing in national polls is equally dramatic.

While Clinton led Trump by an average of 7.6 percentage points one month ago, her advantage is now down to a meager 1.8 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

“No question there’s a movement toward Trump right now,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “When the media is focused on one candidate over the other, it’s generally negative. The media has been focused on Clinton and her health, and Trump smartly did not try to steal the limelight from her.”

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/296189-polls-darken-for-democrats

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Latest Polls :New Jersey Dems Favor Hillary and NJ GOP favors Trump

VOTE_theridgewoodblog

New Poll: Clinton at 55%, Sanders at 32% with NJ Democrats

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton easily beats Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders for the New Jersey Democratic nomination for president, 55 percent to 32 percent, according to today’s Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. Max Pizarro, PolitickerNJ Read more

Rutgers Poll: New Jersey Republican Voters Favor Trump for Prez

Today’s Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of Republican and Republican-leaning voters in New Jersey shows billionaire real estate tycoon Donald Trump with a commanding lead. Max Pizarro, PolitickerNJ Read more

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All polls are now pointing in the same direction: Hillary Clinton is tanking

hillary-clinton-what-difference-does-it-make

Clinton machine stumbles

Dick Morris: Women are leaving Hillary

By Dick Morris – 01/12/16 05:52 PM EST

All polls are now pointing in the same direction: Hillary Clinton is tanking.

The most recent Fox News poll, taken after the new year began, shows her losing to Ted Cruz, 50 percent to 43 percent; to Marco Rubio, 50 percent to 41 percent; and even to Donald Trump, 47 percent to 43 percent. The latest Democratic primary poll, by Investor’s Business Daily, shows the former secretary of State nursing only a 4-point lead over Bernie Sanders, 43 percent to 39 percent. The RealClearPolitics average of New Hampshire polls has Sanders ahead by 6 points — and in Iowa, the candidates are tied in the RCP average, which Clinton led for months.

Beneath the overall head-to-head data, the internals of the polling show a sharp erosion of support for Clinton among women and very little change among male voters.

Among women, she has lost her lead over Cruz, falling from 13 points ahead in a Fox News poll on Dec. 17 to 3 points behind in Fox’s Jan. 7 survey. Among men, she moved from 15 points behind Cruz in December to 14 points back in January.

So while Clinton has lost 16 points among women against Cruz, she is essentially unchanged among men.

The Fox News poll had similar findings for a match-up between Clinton and Rubio. And against Trump, she went from beating The Donald among women by 26 points in December to only 12 points in January.

So why are women leaving Hillary? Bill.

http://thehill.com/opinion/dick-morris/265636-dick-morris-women-are-leaving-hillary

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Polls may actually underestimate Trump’s support, study finds

trump

David LauterContact Reporter

Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some surveys may actually be understating his support, a new study suggests.

The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.

The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate — online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.

Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are “less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human” than when they are in the “anonymous environment” of an online survey, said the firm’s polling director, Kyle Dropp.

With Trump dominating political debates in both parties, gauging his level of support has become a crucial puzzle. The Morning Consult study provides one piece of the solution, although many other uncertainties remain.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-trump-polls-20151221-story.html

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Why Donald Trump Won’t Fold: Polls and People Speak

07trump-master675 (1)

By MICHAEL BARBARO, NATE COHN and JEREMY W. PETERSAUG. 22, 2015
In the command centers of Republican presidential campaigns, aides have drawn comfort from the belief that Donald J. Trump’s dominance in the polls is a political summer fling, like Herman Cain in 2011 — an unsustainable boomlet dependent on megawatt celebrity, narrow appeal and unreliable surveys of Americans with a spotty record of actually voting in primaries.

A growing body of evidence suggests that may be wishful thinking.

A review of public polling, extensive interviews with a host of his supporters in two states and a new private survey that tracks voting records all point to the conclusion that Mr. Trump has built a broad, demographically and ideologically diverse coalition, constructed around personality, not substance, that bridges demographic and political divides. In doing so, he has effectively insulated himself from the consequences of startling statements that might instantly doom rival candidates.

In poll after poll of Republicans, Mr. Trump leads among women, despite having used terms like “fat pigs” and “disgusting animals” to denigrate some of them. He leads among evangelical Christians, despite saying he had never had a reason to ask God for forgiveness. He leads among moderates and college-educated voters, despite a populist and anti-immigrant message thought to resonate most with conservatives and less-affluent voters. He leads among the most frequent, likely voters, even though his appeal is greatest among those with little history of voting

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/23/us/politics/why-donald-trump-wont-fold-polls-and-people-speak.html?_r=0

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George W. Bush tops Obama on favorability in latest CNN Poll and other things your neighbors are thinking

ObamaSmoking2008

George W. Bush tops Obama on favorability in new CNN/ORC poll 

By Mark Henschand other

The CNN/ORC poll reveals that 52 percent of Americans see Bush positively, while 43 percent do not.

In contrast, U.S. voters are split on their views of Obama.

The new poll finds that 49 percent view Obama favorably, while 49 percent do not.

Those ratings for Obama are down from a similar poll in March. During that sampling, 52 percent of Americans viewed him positively, while another 46 percent did not.

Bush’s numbers, meanwhile, mark a major shift for the former president since he departed office in early 2009, CNN said.

It noted that back then, a third viewed Bush favorably.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/243858-george-w-bush-tops-obama-on-favorability-in-new-poll

Poll: More now blame Obama’s policies for the current problems in Iraq than blame Bush’s

POSTED AT 1:21 PM ON JUNE 2, 2015 BY ALLAHPUNDIT

This may seem like a no-brainer — of course the guy who’s been in charge for six years bears more responsibility for the current state of affairs than his predecessor — but for much of the public, Iraq is “Bush’s war” unto eternity. That’s part of the media fascination with asking Republican contenders whether they’d order the invasion in 2003 knowing then what we know now. Implicit in that question is the idea that the last six years of Iraqi history were fated to happen once Bush gave the order to go 12 years ago. Republicans own this issue and they must answer for it, even though Hillary Clinton is the only top-tier candidate in either party who actually had some say over whether the war happened.

As it turns out, though, Republicans don’t own this issue anymore.

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/06/02/poll-more-now-blame-obamas-policies-for-the-current-problems-in-iraq-than-blame-bushs/

Clinton loses voter trust, favorability and lead against hypothetical GOP rivals

By S.A. Miller – The Washington Times – Tuesday, March 31, 2015

The public relations disaster that former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton suffered in March registered in a poll Tuesday, with possible Republican candidates surging ahead of her as voters doubt her honesty in key presidential swing states.

Mrs. Clinton lost ground in hypothetical matchups against every potential Republican rival in the bellwether states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania in the wake of an email scandal and other controversies that erupted last month, Quinnipiac University’s Swing State Poll found.

The closest contests are in Florida, where former Gov. Jeb Bush tops Mrs. Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent, and in Pennsylvania, where Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky narrowly beats her 45 percent to 44 percent, according to the poll.

Mrs. Clinton had the lead in both matchups in the same poll Feb. 2

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/mar/31/hillary-clinton-takes-hit-poll-voters-dont-trust/#ixzz3c1aPLpAB

Obama approval heads downhill

By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director

Updated 12:41 PM ET, Wed June 3, 2015

Washington (CNN)President Barack Obama’s job approval numbers are sinking as American attitudes about the nation’s progress have taken a turn for the worse, according to a new CNN/ORC poll.

A majority of the public once again say things in the U.S. are going pretty badly and disapproval of Obama’s job performance has climbed back above 50% as well.

Overall, 47% say things in the country are going well, 52% that they’re going badly. That’s a reversal from March, when 53% said things were going well, the highest share to say so during Obama’s presidency. The shift comes across partisan and demographic lines, with no one group’s opinions driving the overall change.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/03/politics/obama-approval-rating-cnn-poll/