Can Mary Jo Guinchard Pull Off a Big Upset Against Incumbent Josh Gottheimer?

the staff of the Ridgewood blog

Ridgewood NJ, with the 2024 election season heating up, an underdog candidate from Ridgewood, Mary Jo Guinchard, is making waves in New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District. Guinchard, a political newcomer, is taking on Congressman Josh Gottheimer, who has represented the district since 2017. And while Guinchard’s name may not be widely recognized yet, her campaign is gaining momentum.

After winning the Republican primary with a decisive 70% of the vote, Guinchard expressed her gratitude, saying, “I am humbled and honored to officially be the Republican nominee for New Jersey’s Fifth Congressional District! Thank you to the voters and volunteers for putting your trust in me—I look forward to winning in November and serving as your Congresswoman!”

Could This Be the Year for Republicans in CD-5?

In recent weeks, Guinchard has been vocal about the support she’s seeing, pointing to her hard work on the ground and what she views as Gottheimer’s lack of focus on the district’s specific needs. “My hard work—and my opponent’s lack of attention to the district—may be flipping this!” she said.

What’s more, Guinchard’s optimism may not be unfounded. Early voting numbers are showing an unexpected trend: Republicans in New Jersey’s 5th District currently lead by 1,266 votes. While it’s too early to predict how this lead will hold up, it’s certainly noteworthy in a district with more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Statewide, New Jersey generally leans Democratic (about D+10), but the 5th District skews approximately seven points more conservative than the state average—creating a potentially more favorable landscape for Guinchard than many might expect.

What’s Next?

The race for New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District will be one to watch. Guinchard’s strategy appears focused on grassroots campaigning and rallying early voter turnout, while Gottheimer continues to leverage his experience and incumbency.

With a key lead in early voting and a strong campaign narrative, Mary Jo Guinchard might just turn the tables in NJ-5. As November approaches, this could become one of the most competitive and closely watched races in New Jersey.

 

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