By Charles Stampul
Nominal GDP doesn’t always decline during an inflationary recession (i.e., stagflation) because the figure reflects both economic activity and price levels.
It’s Real GDP (GDP adjusted for CPI) that shows expansion or contraction.
Has Real GDP been declining? Yes.
Has the yield curve been inverted? Yes.
Are corporate bankruptcies rising? Yes, highest since 2010.
Is commercial real estate plummeting? Yes.
Are more and more empty storefronts staying empty? Yes.
Do labor reports show that part time jobs are replacing full time jobs, accounting for job gains? Yes.
Is retail theft rising. Yes, never been higher in the US.
Is CNBC and Bloomberg saying there is no recession? Yes.
Are White House spokespeople saying there is no recession? Yes.
Then we are in a recession, if not a depression.
How quickly will the Fed reverse course and start cutting interest rates and purchasing Treasuries to fight an escalating banking crisis? This is the only question.
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