New Study Challenges Climate Science Claim: No Evidence of Accelerating Global Sea Level Rise, Researchers Say

Looks Like Obamas’ Martha’s Vineyard beach front estate is safe for now !

the staff of the Ridgewood blog

Ridgewood NJ, a newly published peer-reviewed study in the Journal of Marine Science and Engineering is shaking up the climate science debate by challenging one of its central claims — that global sea level rise is accelerating.

Dutch researchers Hessel Voortman and Rob de Vos analyzed more than 200 long-term tide gauge records worldwide and found no statistical evidence of accelerating sea level rise. Their study, A Global Perspective on Local Sea Level Changes, also revealed that IPCC climate models systematically overestimate local sea level rise, particularly in their 2020 projections.

Key Findings from the Study

• No Global Acceleration: Out of 204 tide stations with records spanning at least 60 years, 195 showed no statistically significant acceleration.

• Local Factors Explain Anomalies: The few stations showing acceleration were linked to local issues such as earthquakes (Japan), groundwater extraction (Bangkok, Mumbai), or land subsidence.

• IPCC Models Overstate Rise: On average, IPCC projections overestimated local sea level rise by about 2 mm/year compared to observed data.

“This research shows that while sea levels are rising, the claim of accelerating global sea level rise does not hold up under rigorous analysis,” said co-author Rob de Vos, who also runs the climate science blog klimaatgek.nl.

Why This Study Matters

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has long argued that sea level rise is accelerating due to greenhouse gas emissions and melting ice sheets. These projections underpin policies, infrastructure planning, and warnings of potential flooding by the end of the century.

But according to Voortman and de Vos, the data tells a different story. The average global sea level rise remains steady at around 1.7 mm per year, consistent with measurements over the past century.

Historical Context of Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise is not a new phenomenon. Since the last ice age ended about 15,000 years ago, oceans have risen roughly 120 meters. In recent centuries, the pace has slowed, and modern observations suggest a steady, but not accelerating, rise.

Earlier research by Voortman (2023) already showed that Dutch coastal stations had not experienced accelerating sea level rise. This latest study confirms the same pattern globally.

Reaction and Next Steps

While some climate scientists may push back on these findings, the study adds to a growing body of work questioning the accuracy of climate projections. The authors emphasize that long-term, high-quality tide gauge records are essential for understanding real trends, avoiding misinterpretation from short-term fluctuations.

“This study is significant because it challenges the narrative that has been presented as an unquestionable fact,” said de Vos. “Science is about testing assumptions, not enforcing consensus.”

Conclusion

The study concludes that:

• There is no evidence of accelerating global sea level rise.

• IPCC models overestimate actual rise rates.

• Local geological and human factors drive outlier results, not global warming.

This research may reshape how scientists, policymakers, and the public view the risks associated with rising seas — a cornerstone of climate change discourse.

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