DEAD HEAT: New Poll Shows Sherrill and Ciattarelli Tied in Explosive NJ Governor’s Race

NJ Governor Upset? New Poll Shows Sherrill-Ciattarelli DEAD HEAT: Who’s Winning the Key Voter Groups?

the staff of the Ridgewood blog

Trenton NJ, a new poll released Thursday reveals a stunning development in the New Jersey gubernatorial race: Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are locked in a statistical tie just weeks before the November election.

The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey found both candidates receiving 43 percent support among somewhat and very likely New Jersey voters, with a significant 11 percent still undecided. This tight result, coming days after the first debate, signals a major challenge for Democrats looking to hold onto the governor’s mansion in the Garden State.

The Great Divide: Gender and Age Splits Defined

Analysis of the poll data reveals sharp divides among key demographics that could ultimately decide the race:

• Gender: A significant gender gap is fueling the tie. Women voters favor Sherrill by ten points (46% to 36%), while men are breaking for Ciattarelli by 12 points (51% to 39%).
  • Key Takeaway: Undecided women are a massive factor, as 15% of women voters are still on the fence, compared to only 6% of men.
• Age: The generation gap is also pronounced, with Sherrill dominating younger voters and Ciattarelli taking the lead among older residents.
  • Voters under 40 break heavily for Sherrill, 58% to 24%.
  • Sherrill maintains a lead among voters in their 40s (47% to 40%).
  • Ciattarelli flips the script with voters over 50, leading Sherrill 52% to 36% in this group.

Affordability Takes Center Stage

Ciattarelli’s campaign strategy has heavily focused on the issue of affordability, particularly the soaring costs of utilities and New Jersey’s notoriously high property taxes. The poll results underscore the potency of this message:

• When asked about high utility costs, New Jersey voters are divided on who to blame:
  • 36% of Democrats blame utility companies.
  • 36% of Republicans blame Governor Phil Murphy.
  • Independents are split between Governor Murphy (27%) and utility companies (23%).

This focus on pocketbook issues—along with property taxes and education—has made the race a barometer for the national mood ahead of the 2026 midterms, as both New Jersey and Virginia hold gubernatorial elections this fall.

Murphy’s Approval Rating: A Weight for Sherrill?

The current Democratic Governor, Phil Murphy, holds a job disapproval rating of 44 percent, compared to just 35 percent who approve. While this slight decrease in approval from a similar poll in May could impact Sherrill, the Republican effort to win the governorship here comes despite Democrats winning several high-profile special elections this year.

The battle for New Jersey’s highest office remains a nail-biter, with the outcome likely resting on which candidate can better energize their base and capture the attention of that crucial 11 percent of undecided voters.

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Methodology: The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll surveyed 935 somewhat likely and very likely New Jersey voters between Sept. 22-23. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.