The AI Scare Trade: Why Visa, Uber, and IBM Took Major Hits on Monday
the staff of the Ridgewood blog
Wall Street New York ,The stock market hit a massive wall of digital anxiety this Monday as a “perfect storm” of bearish reports and technological shifts sent shockwaves through the tech and finance sectors. From blue-chip giants like IBM to gig-economy leaders like Uber, the “AI Scare Trade” is back—and it’s more aggressive than ever.
The Catalyst: Citrini Research’s 2028 “Thought Exercise”
The sell-off began following a viral report from Citrini Research, founded by James van Geelen. While the report was framed as a “scenario, not a prediction,” its hypothetical look at June 2028 painted a grim picture for current market leaders.
The “Left-Tail Risks” cited in the report include:
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Mass White-Collar Unemployment: AI-driven displacement leading to a sharp drop in consumer spending.
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The Death of Transaction Fees: AI agents designed to save users money by bypassing the fees charged by Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
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The End of Delivery Giants: The disruption of DoorDash and Uber Eats by “vibe-coded,” agentic commerce alternatives.
The market’s reaction was swift. DoorDash co-founder Andy Fang even weighed in on X (formerly Twitter), admitting, “The ground is shifting underneath our feet.”
IBM’s 25-Year Low: The “Claude Code” Effect
While Citrini’s report shook the “vibe” of the market, IBM suffered a direct hit to its core business. Shares of the tech giant plummeted 13%—its largest single-day drop since the year 2000.
The trigger? A blog post from AI startup Anthropic revealing that their new Claude Code tool can successfully modernize COBOL. Since a massive portion of IBM’s revenue relies on maintaining legacy COBOL systems for banks and governments, the prospect of an AI-powered “easy button” for migration represents a structural threat to Big Blue’s bottom line.
Nassim Taleb Warns of “Software Bankruptcies”
Adding fuel to the fire, The Black Swan author Nassim Taleb issued a stark warning to investors. Taleb suggested that the market is significantly underpricing the structural risks of AI while overestimating the staying power of today’s software leaders.
According to Taleb, investors should brace for:
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Escalating Volatility: As the AI rally enters a “fragile phase.”
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Potential Bankruptcies: Specifically within the software sector as AI agents render traditional SaaS models obsolete.
Market Bloodbath: The Numbers
The “AI Doom” sentiment didn’t just hit tech; it dragged down private equity and credit card heavyweights:
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IBM: Down 13%
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DoorDash, Amex, KKR, Blackstone: All slumped 6% or more.
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Uber, Mastercard, Visa, Capital One: All fell by 4% or more.
The Bottom Line: Is Your Portfolio “AI-Proof”?
As Citrini Research noted, many current portfolios are built on assumptions that may not survive the decade. Whether these “AI Doom” scenarios materialize or not, the market is officially on notice: the AI revolution isn’t just about who wins—it’s about who gets left behind.
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Tags: #StockMarket #AI #Investing #IBM #TechNews #Finance #ArtificialIntelligence #MarketCrash
