By Michael Goodwin
August 29, 2015 | 11:49pm
If you’re having trouble understanding the phenomenal rise of Donald Trump, buck up — you’re not alone. Even political pros are dumbfounded.
They were shocked when the reality-TV star and businessman first grabbed the lead in national GOP polls. Now they’re double shocked as he soars in primary states, grabbing a 24-point lead in New Hampshire and a 15-point lead in South Carolina.
In one survey, Trump more than doubled his favorability ratings among Republicans in a single month, from 20 percent to 52 percent. The Hill newspaper called the turnaround “political magic” and the poll’s director, Patrick Murray of Monmouth University, called it “astounding.”
“That defies any rule in presidential politics that I’ve ever seen,” Murray told The Hill.
Other pollsters made similar comments, but a closer look shows an explanation. I call it the Pendulum Factor.
It reflects the fact that the legacy of each president includes the political climate he leaves behind. In plain English, Barack Obama’s most important failures as a leader begat Donald Trump’s success.
A favorable legacy among voters generally means the public wants more of the same in the next president. The clearest example is that Vice President George H.W. Bush succeeded Ronald Reagan in 1988, an election widely regarded as Reagan’s third term.
On the other hand, George W. Bush narrowly defeated Vice President Al Gore in 2000, a disputed election that was nonetheless seen as a repudiation of the scandal-scarred Bill Clinton era.
political pros are dumfounded because they are… political pros (aka useless idiots)