Public School Enrollment Plummets: New Brookings Report Warns of Long-Term Decline

the staff of the Ridgewood blog

Ridgewood NJ, a new Brookings Institution study reveals alarming trends in U.S. public school enrollment, showing steep declines since COVID-19 and projecting even deeper losses by 2050.

Researchers note that public school enrollment was already stagnating before the pandemic, with only a 2% rise between 2012 and 2019. That slowdown was tied to a historically low U.S. fertility rate of 1.71 births per woman—well below replacement level. But COVID-19 turned this gradual decline into a sudden shock.

Enrollment Declines Accelerated After 2020

• States like Massachusetts, Virginia, Michigan, and California saw especially steep drops.

• National research shows enrollment losses concentrated in urban and high-poverty districts.

• Homeschooling and private-school enrollment surged, yet millions of children remain “missing” from any formal rolls.

Between 2019–20 and 2021–22, about 2.05 million students disappeared from public and private school records—most from traditional public schools.

Financial and Educational Strains on Districts

Because most state and federal education aid is tied to per-pupil counts, enrollment declines create serious budget stress for school districts. Many are considering:

• School closures or consolidations

• Redistricting to balance class sizes

• Cutting staff and extracurricular programs

Evidence shows sharper declines raise the odds of permanent school closures—decisions often politically charged and deeply felt by local communities.

Uneven Impact Across Student Groups

Enrollment declines haven’t been uniform:

• Kindergarten enrollment dropped most sharply among Black and low-income children.

• Later-grade declines were more concentrated among white and higher-income students.

These shifts have sparked concerns about re-segregation and resource inequality, as well as widening educational gaps across income and racial groups.

What the Future Holds

If families eventually return to pre-pandemic schooling patterns, overall population decline alone could cut 2.2 million students from public schools by 2050. If recent homeschooling and private-school trends continue, losses could reach 8.5 million students—shrinking enrollment from 43 million today to as few as 34.5 million by mid-century.

The Big Question: Will Families Come Back?

Some experts believe the exodus may soften as parents find homeschooling unsustainable with full-time work demands. Others expect that competition from private schools, charter programs, and online learning will permanently reshape the American K-12 landscape.

Bottom Line

The pandemic accelerated changes already underway in U.S. education. With millions of students gone from public rolls—and budgets tied to enrollment—the coming decades may bring fundamental transformations to how communities fund, staff, and even define public schooling.

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