Weather experts contradict NJ Transit chief on Sandy flooding forecast for rail yards
By Stephen Stirling/The Star-Ledger
on December 12, 2012 at 6:00 AM, updated December 12, 2012 at 1:38 PM
Each time James Weinstein explains how NJ Transit left 300 rail cars exposed to the floodwaters of Hurricane Sandy, he becomes a little more stern, more resolute.
“I can tell you unequivocally: The decisions on where to keep and move our rail cars and locomotives were sound, based on the best weather models and forecasts, historical experience and other information we had at the time, mid-day Sunday, when we had to launch the railroad shutdown,” the NJ Transit executive director told the Assembly Transportation Committee Monday. “The facts are, the weather models we used at the time indicated an 80- to 90-percent chance that the Meadows Maintenance Complex in Kearny and the western portion of the Hoboken rail yards would stay dry.”
The problem wasn’t when the decision was made, it was the information used to make it.
A Star-Ledger examination based on interviews, analysis of scores of forecasts and computer models found that on Oct. 28, the Sunday before the storm hit, only one forecast map showed a 10- to 20-percent chance of the Kearny yard flooding on Monday. Most other guidance was far more dire. Additionally, forecasters say NJ Transit never contacted them for help in interpreting the data, and had they, they would have been told Sunday morning the yard had a high to near certain likelihood of taking on water from the storm surge.
https://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/12/questions_surface_over_nj_tran.html
This guy is toast. In another comment, he stated that they were some”80-90%” sure there would be no flooding.
So if one puts one billion dollars of new rail equipment in a locaton with “80-90%” chance of it surviving, that means the expected monitary outcome is $150,000,000 of equipment would be lost.
Think about that, and be thankful that this Christie appointee (where is Christie for the working people of North Jersey, or does he only care about those who lost ther 2nd homes in Brick) is not managing your retirement funds.
And in the meantime, commuters from Ridgewood who transfer in Secaucus (an annoying effort in normal times) have not had a smooth ride in in weeks.
I guess NJ Transit didnt employ any common sense — just the weather statistics. Anyone who have lived/traveled in and around Hoboken for any period of time knows that it floods in the simpliest of nor-easters. No matter what the weather probabilities, judgement needs to come in to play. Meanwhich, the Main/Bergen line is still not back to the normal schedule due to the lack of judgement.