the staff of the Ridgewood blog
Ridgewood NJ, The US COVID-19 incidence continues to increase, since early June, coinciding with states’ efforts to relax social distancing and resume normal activities, but US COVID-19 deaths have steadily decreased since mid-April. One potential explanation for these differing trends is a shift in age distribution of COVID-19 patients toward younger age groups. Several states that are currently reporting surges in COVID-19 incidence—including Arizona, California, Florida, Texas, and Washington—have exhibited an increasing proportion of cases among younger adults (eg, in their 20s and 30s). A number of factors are likely contributing to this trend. One possible driver is increased social interaction following the relaxation of social distancing restrictions, which has been observed among younger individuals who are at lower risk of severe disease and death.
Despite the lower risk, Dr. Anthony Fauci noted yesterday in his testimony to the US House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee that some younger individuals do get severe COVID-19 disease and die. Additionally, as testing and contact tracing capacity has increased nationwide, it has facilitated the detection of milder cases and asymptomatic infections, which appear to be more common among younger individuals. Early in the US epidemic, limited testing capacity was largely focused on hospitalized patients, which skewed to toward older patients.
While many of the newly identified COVID-19 cases may be among younger individuals who are at lower risk for severe disease and death, any increase in cases in the community increases transmission risk, including to higher-risk individuals. Some health experts view the shift toward younger cases as an “ominous” signal that could forecast future increases in severe disease and death as transmission spreads beyond younger demographic groups. Notably, several of these states are also exhibiting increased COVID-19 hospitalizations, which indicates that the increasing incidence is not limited to mild cases and asymptomatic infections. In fact 7 states—Arizona, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas—are reporting record numbers of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
