Aging America heading for disaster
By Kyle Smith
February 8, 2014 | 9:48pm
To really understand what’s going on with the American economy, don’t look at the headlines. Don’t look at the unemployment rate or the trade balance or the deficit. Don’t even look at what’s happening today at all: Look at what happened 46 years ago.
And what happened then? Fewer Americas were being born, points out Harry S. Dent Jr. in “The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019” (Portfolio).
Following the Baby Boom, which peaked in 1961, came the Baby Bust, a long slow decline in the birthrate. Those babies grew up and began spending in accordance with highly predictable patterns.
People tend, for instance, to buy houses at about the same age — age 31 or so. Around age 53 is when people tend to buy their luxury cars — after the kids have finished college, before old age sets in. Demographics can even tell us when your household spending on potato chips is likely to peak — when the head of it is about 42.
Ultimately the size of the US economy is simply the total of what we’re all spending. Overall household spending hits a high when we’re about 46. So the peak of the Baby Boom (1961) plus 46 suggests that a high point in the US economy should be about 2007, with a long, slow decline to follow for years to come.
https://nypost.com/2014/02/08/thanks-to-aging-population-its-all-downhill-from-here-for-usa/
If one listened to or really payed attention do all the doom sayers we would have collapsed many years ago.
Cutting taxes for the wealthy won’t help the demographics-drive recession — it will make it worse
yes that worked so well in Argentina sorry you ,missed the 3rd grade econ you cant tax and spend you way to property
Lol at James. Dude is barely literate, yet thinks he should opine on economic theory.
Nice strawman, by the way! You set it up and tore it down like a BOSS! Except that’s not what #2 was getting at.
best to hit the books 3rd grade econ is a good place to start
talk about a cliff, look at the snow piles in the parking lots in the cbd. jump from them. why are they still in the lots.
Lol james, I have a graduate degree in finance from a top tier school! Nobody in any way advocated taxing our way out of recession; they merely implied that cutting taxes on one tranche are not the answer either.
You stick with your Austrian School and Laffer curve.
if you graduated from a “top tier school” you should speak like you did ,Bergen Community doesn’t qualify
Now you’re a grammar coach! Loving it!
You got me though: I did take a class at BCC in between my undergraduate and graduate degrees. French 101. I lost interest in it. I hear BCC is a fine school if one applies oneself.
Having mastered 3rd grade Econ, you would benefit from some Heilbroner and Beinhocker. Happy reading!
like I said