the staff of the Ridgewood blog
Trenton NJ, New Jersey’s race for governor is heating up, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is closing the gap on Democrat Mikie Sherrill — thanks to a strong showing among independents when voters focus on local issues.
A new Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) Poll finds Sherrill leading by just eight points among likely voters — 45% to Ciattarelli’s 37% — with 16% still undecided. While Sherrill currently holds the edge, the survey reveals a key opening for Ciattarelli: when the conversation shifts to New Jersey-focused issues like energy costs, flooding, and NJ Transit, independents swing seven points in his favor.
“Jack Ciattarelli is connecting with voters where it matters — on the issues they face every day right here in New Jersey,” said political observers. “The more this race is about Trenton and not Washington, the stronger Ciattarelli becomes.”
Independents Could Decide the Race
The FDU poll’s experimental approach shows that when independents are reminded of local challenges, many of the undecided break for Ciattarelli. On the other hand, when the focus turns to national politics, including former President Donald Trump, Ciattarelli’s support among independents drops slightly — though he consolidates his Republican base.
With New Jersey’s Democratic voter registration advantage, Ciattarelli will need to win a solid share of independents and moderate Democrats. The poll suggests that sticking to kitchen-table concerns could be his clearest path to victory.
Republican Base Strengthening
While Sherrill has strong Democratic loyalty (87% committed), Ciattarelli is closing in with 86% Republican support, and the poll shows that national issues can actually firm up GOP enthusiasm for him. The challenge is balancing that without alienating persuadable voters.
Demographics and Opportunity
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Tied among white voters (43% Sherrill, 42% Ciattarelli)
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Competitive among older voters, a historically reliable voting bloc
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Room to grow with Hispanic/Latino voters, where 27% remain undecided
With months to go before Election Day, and a sizable undecided bloc still in play, the poll underscores what Ciattarelli’s campaign has been saying: stay focused on New Jersey, and the Governor’s Mansion is within reach.
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