the staff of the Ridgewood blog
Madison, NJ, in the aftermath of a series of criminal charges against New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez, 70 percent of the state’s residents want him to resign, rather than serve out his term. According to the latest results from the FDU Poll, Menendez has lost the support of voters across the political spectrum, and reminding voters of the issue leads independent voters to be more likely to support Republican candidates in the upcoming election for control of the state legislature.
“Menendez has been able to weather charges in the past,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU, and the director of the poll. “But this time, it just doesn’t seem like he has any real support left.”
Seventy percent of NJ residents say that Menendez should resign in advance of a potential re-election bid next year, with just 16 percent saying that he should serve out his time in office. Republicans are more likely than Democrats or independents to say that New Jersey’s senior senator should go, but not by much: 80 percent of Republicans say that he should resign, compared with 67 percent of independents and 71 percent of Democrats. Support for Menendez serving out his term is higher among younger voters than older ones, as well as with Black residents, but even in that group, only 25 percent say that he should stay in office.
There has been some concern among Democrats that Menendez could be an anchor on the party going into the state legislative elections in November, when all the seats in the General Assembly and State Senate will be up for grabs. To see if reminding voters about Menendez would change whether and how residents voted in the upcoming election, the poll included an experiment in which half of respondents were asked about Menendez, and corruption in New Jersey, before being asked about their vote in November, and half were asked only afterwards.
Priming respondents in this way does make residents more likely to say that they will vote in the November elections for the New Jersey legislature (from 47 percent saying that they will “almost certainly” vote to 54 percent), largely driven by an increase among independents. Reminding respondents about Menendez also makes independents more likely to say that they’ll vote for the Republican candidate in the upcoming election. When they are not primed with the Menendez and corruption questions, independents favor the Democratic candidate in their district by 6 points, 18 to 12 (51 percent unsure); with the Menendez prime, they favor the Republican candidate 20 to 18 (53 percent unsure), a shift of 8 points.
“Thinking about Menendez makes less partisan voters more likely to say that they’re going to vote Republican,” said Cassino. “The question is whether those voters are going to bother to show up in what’s normally a very low turnout election.”
The increase in Republican support among independents is balanced out by shifts among Democrats: asking them about Menendez makes them marginally more likely to support Democratic candidates (from 73 to 79 percent). On the whole, asking about Menendez first does not substantially change vote preferences: in the unprimed condition, Democratic candidates lead in the generic ballot question 37 to 31. When voters are reminded about Menendez, Democratic candidates lead 38 to 28.
“Republicans have been hoping that they could tar the whole New Jersey state Democratic Party with Menendez,” said Cassino. “But voters don’t seem to be buying it.”
The poll also asked respondents about corruption in New Jersey politics generally, replicating a series of questions asked in May of this year. Today, 26 percent of Garden State residents say that politicians here, on the whole, are “very corrupt,” with another 33 percent saying that they are “somewhat” corrupt. Only 9 percent say that they are “not at all” corrupt. Independents and Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say that New Jersey politicians are “very” corrupt (24 percent), versus 7 percent among Democrats.
Interestingly, these responses are almost exactly the same as in May, when 13 percent said that politicians in New Jersey were “not at all” corrupt (now 9 percent), and 18 percent said that they were “very” corrupt (unchanged). Nor did the views of New Jersey residents on how corrupt the politicians representing them – rather than politicians in the state generally – change substantially since May. The biggest shift was among Democrats in the state, who became less likely since May to say that the politicians representing them, and New Jersey politicians generally, were “not at all corrupt.”
“It seems like a degree of corruption is already baked in to how New Jersey voters see their elected officials,” said Cassino. “Jersey voters think politicians are so corrupt that criminal charges against a sitting senator just don’t move the needle.”
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