the staff of the Ridgewood blog
Ridgewood NJ, for decades, New Jersey has been a Democratic stronghold, but the results of the 2024 presidential election and recent gubernatorial races suggest that the Garden State might be shifting toward swing state status.
While Vice President Kamala Harris secured New Jersey in 2024, her five-point victory over Donald Trump was significantly narrower than Joe Biden’s 16-point win in 2020. This, combined with Republican gains in voter registration and key counties, has political strategists wondering: Could New Jersey become a battleground state?
Republican Gains in New Jersey: A Trend to Watch
New Jersey has historically favored Democrats in national elections, with Trump losing the state by double digits in both 2016 and 2020. However, his 2024 performance was the closest a Republican has come to flipping New Jersey since 1992, when George H.W. Bush lost by just 2.4 points.
Several factors suggest a growing Republican presence in the state:
🔹 Voter Registration Shift – Since 2021, New Jersey voters have been switching to the Republican Party at a steady pace. Democrats’ one-million-voter advantage in 2020 has now shrunk to just under 900,000.
🔹 Consistent GOP Growth – Republicans have outpaced Democrats in voter registrations every month since Biden took office. In January 2024 alone, the GOP gained 10,000 voters, while Democrats lost 2,000.
🔹 Key County Flips – Trump won Passaic County, a traditionally Democratic area with a large Hispanic population. Republicans also made significant gains in Hudson County, which includes Jersey City and Hoboken.
Minority Voters and the Republican Surge
One of the most significant changes in New Jersey politics has been Republican gains among Hispanic and working-class voters.
📌 Passaic County Flip – Traditionally Democratic, this county went red in 2024, a sign that minority voters in New Jersey are increasingly open to GOP candidates.
📌 Hudson County Gains – Trump won 35% of the vote in 2024, up from 26% in 2020, reflecting Republican momentum in urban, minority-heavy areas.
According to Hudson County GOP Chairman Jose Arango, many local voters feel out of touch with Democratic leadership, particularly when it comes to housing policies that favor luxury developments.
New Jersey’s 2025 Governor’s Race: A True Toss-Up?
New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial election will be a critical test of the state’s political landscape.
🔹 Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) won reelection in 2021 by just 3 points—a far closer margin than expected in deep-blue New Jersey.
🔹 Republican gains in 2024 suggest the upcoming governor’s race could be highly competitive.
🔹 Top Republican candidates include Jack Ciattarelli (who ran against Murphy in 2021) and radio host Bill Spadea.
According to Chris Russell, a GOP strategist, the Republican shift in voter registration and recent election results make the 2025 governor’s race a true toss-up.
New Jersey: A Future Swing State?
Neighboring Pennsylvania was once considered a Democratic stronghold—until Trump won it in 2016, turning it into one of the most contested swing states in the country. Could New Jersey be following the same path?
🔹 Democrats acknowledge the shift – Michael Suleiman, chair of the Atlantic County Democratic Party, admits that the party is struggling to resonate with working-class voters.
🔹 Hispanic voters are key – Republican Assemblyman Brian Bergen believes that capturing Hispanic support could be the deciding factor in future elections.
🔹 Republicans must maintain momentum – Bergen warns that the New Jersey GOP must keep building support in 2025, or risk losing ground.
Final Thoughts: Is New Jersey Truly in Play?
While New Jersey remains blue—for now—recent election results and shifting demographics indicate that the state is becoming more competitive.
✅ Republicans are gaining in voter registration.
✅ Minority and working-class voters are shifting to the right.
✅ The 2025 governor’s race could be a major test for both parties.
Could New Jersey become the next Pennsylvania? If Republican gains continue, the Garden State may soon find itself as America’s newest battleground state.
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There was definitely a right-shift at the last election, but I just can’t see anything but blue in NJ. Between all the NY transplants and the masses of residents who receive some kind of free handout, Dems are in safe hands here. The fact that fiscally, the State is all but bankrupt, doesn’t appear to register with even the seemingly educated.
Bergen County needs to flip red!
AS IT USED TO BE
Ridgewood will vote with Paterson , till it becomes Paterson