The Official Forecast of the U.S. Government Never Saw This Winter Coming
By Peter Coy February 18, 2014
Surprised by how tough this winter has been? You’re in good company: Last fall the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that temperatures would be above normal from November through January across much of the Lower 48 states. This graphic shows just how wrong the official forecast of the U.S. government was:
The big red blotch in the top map represents parts of the country in which the Climate Prediction Center forecast above-average temperatures. The frigid-looking blue blotch in the bottom “verification” map shows areas where temperatures turned out to be below average.
“Not one of our better forecasts,” admits Mike Halpert, the Climate Prediction Center’s acting director. The center grades itself on what it calls the Heidke skill score, which ranges from 100 (perfection) to -50 (monkeys throwing darts would have done better). October’s forecast for the three-month period of November through January came in at -22. Truth be told, the September prediction for October-December was slightly worse, at -23. The main cause in both cases was the same: Underestimating the mammoth December cold wave, which brought snow to Dallas and chilled partiers in Times Square on New Year’s Eve.
No one can predict what mother nature does or can do.
What in the world is going on with the Hudson Street parking lot. Lousy plowing job, piles of snow blocking spots (loss of revenue), ice all over the lot, and if you are lucky to find a spot, you take your life into your hands getting to the meters which are an ice field. And then after all that you find out the meter isn’t working…. and yes I know we have a rock salt shortage (maybe we need to plan better in the beginning of the season to stockpile it).
why can’t they just remove all the cars so the plow dept can come in and plow the lot’s.why is the police dept not towing the cars out of the lot at night. I do under stand that they can not plow it until the cars are out of the lot. come on police dept set it up.
If the “Climate Prediction Center” can’t get this year’s weather right, how can we expect it to forecast weather 50 years in the future and then ask us to spend trillions to ameliorate those, frankly speculative, conditions?
These models are computer models whose premises are selected by climatologists that are heavily invested (and benefiting from) the global warming debate. They are not reliable and should not be used as a basis for policy until thoroughly reviewed
Nobody can accurately predict the weather, but the insurance companies have used it for years to screw homeowners with higher rates.
For 20 years we haven’t had a hurricane so they pocket the profits.
When we do have a rare storm *(Sandy)* they use it to increase rates-even though most of the damage was from flooding, which is not covered by homeowners’ policies!
Al Gore can…
… it’s settled science
Clearly this means there is no anthropo-influenced climate change, and we should all go buy Hummers.
move the cars so the plow crews can clear the ice and snow in that lot.