the staff of the Ridgewood blog

Trenton NJ, Governors Murphy’s road-to-the-White-House narrative claims that New Jersey is growing, but in the real world, the data show that in 2022 New Jersey continued to have one of the worst outmigrations of people and wealth in the nation.  For the past two years — the two years following Murphy’s COVID lockdowns and school closures —  New Jersey’s population actually shrunk.

Murphy’s narrative also claims New Jersey is a great place to locate a business, but in the real world, New Jersey has been ranked dead last for its business climate for every year he has been governor.

All this bodes ill for New Jersey’s future, but rather than address the state’s big problems, Murphy appears content to maintain the status quo, take care of his government union supporters, and further his own political ambitions. This makes New Jersey look like a mere stepping-stone in Murphy’s political career, nothing more.

When Gov. Murphy was recently asked about interstate migration, he answered that New Jersey “has never been hotter than it is right now as a place for families to come and raise their kids and for businesses to locate. We’re growing,” (as quoted by the Star-Ledger).

That may be a soundbite for Murphy’s road-to-the-White-House narrative, but in the real world, the data says the opposite: New Jersey has one of the worst outmigration problems in the nation.

Here are the facts, according to several recent surveys of 2022 migration patterns:
• New Jersey lost a net -64,231 people to other states, 4th-worst in the nation.
• Retirees continue to flee New Jersey.
• Wealthy residents continue to migrate to other states, taking their wealth with
them.
• Over the past two years, New Jersey’s population has actually decreased. Unfortunately, outmigration has been a long-term trend for New Jersey. For the 2010- 19 decade, New Jersey lost a net -491,000 people to domestic outmigration, 4th-worst in the nation. During this decade, New Jersey had a small overall population gain because high levels of foreign immigration cancelled out domestic outmigration. But that has changed: during both 2021 and 2022 – the years following Murphy’s pandemic lockdowns — New Jersey has seen an absolute decline in population: -0.14% in 2021 and – 0.1% in 2022.

This has broad negative implications for the state’s future. As Pew Charitable Trusts stated:
“Population trends are tied to states’ economic fortunes and government finances. More people usually means more workers and consumers adding to economic activity … which generates more tax revenue. A growing economy …can attract even more workers and their families. The reverse is true for states with … shrinking populaces.”

Unsurprisingly, wealth is leaving the state along with people. In-migrants only have about two-thirds the income of out-migrants, so departing New Jerseyans took a net $24.6 billion with them from 2010-19. But because $24.6 billion only reflects the single 3 year before the out-migrant left the state, it does not include every year in the future when that person is no longer in New Jersey. So the real loss is multiples higher.
Per Pew, the consistent outmigration of people and wealth bodes ill for New Jersey’s economic and fiscal future . These are the facts, Gov. Murphy, and we ignore them at our peril.
(This report is an update of Sunlight’s study of NJ’S outmigration problem “Beware the Downward Spiral”).

see more: https://sunlightpolicynj.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/NJ-Outmigration-Feb2023-Report-1.pdf

 

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