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Lies, damned lies and government unemployment statistics… on America’s birthday, no less!

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Posted by Scott St Clair On July 02, 2015

By Scott St. Clair | The Save Jersey Blog

More from Scott https://savejersey.com/2015/07/unemployment-statistics-obama/

Progressives, liberals, socialists, Democrats  and the media (one and the same?) who crow about the current “low” unemployment rate never want to admit that the reason it’s gotten to 5.3 percent — the “official unemployment rate,” or U-3, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics — is because the bureaucrats at BLS and the politicians in the White House artificially have tossed millions upon millions of long-term, out-of-work Americans off the roles by arbitrarily declaring that they’re “no longer in the labor force.”

There are lies, damned lies and government unemployment statistics. I’ve written about this before, but you can never have enough economic bad news, especially on the eve of our national birthday.

The more accurate U-6 rate, which is what economists look at for unemployment numbers and includes those marginally attached to the workforce, has the unemployment rate at 10.5 percent. But even that is too optimistic.

There are some – count John Williams at ShadowStats.com and me among them – who contend that the REAL unemployment rate has to include EVERYBODY, not just those the government wants included and did, until 1994 when they rigged the way the numbers were calculated to exclude the long-term unemployed.

That unemployment rate – the REAL rate – is 23.1 percent, a number that, unlike the U-3 and the U-6, hasn’t significantly gone down in over two years. At its highest in 1933 during the Great Depression, the unemployment rate was at 25 percent.

While Williams is not without his critics, they focus more on his terminology and harping about the edges of his calculations rather than his central thesis that a whole lot of folks who should be counted as in the labor force aren’t being counted.

Since, for statistical purposes, the U-3 only counts workers in the labor force, the measurement automatically drops whenever the labor force shrinks in size, which it does whenever the government wants it to. In theory, I can get the unemployment rate to ZERO by simply declaring all unemployed persons  to be no longer in the labor force. BAM – problem solved.

Adding insult to injury, whatever job creation we’ve seen has been in low-wage and part-time positions.  Mid- and higher-range positions are down some 1.2 million since 2009. When you go from making $75,000 per year on a full-time basis to making $7.50 per hour on a part time basis, most people consider that to be a severe hit, but the federal government considers it a net win – after all, you’re working, aren’t you?

A record 94 MILLION Americans are no longer considered as being in the labor force. That’s substantially greater than one in three, resulting in a participation rate — the total of Americans working or “looking” for work — of 62.6 percent, a number not seen since the worst days of the Carter administration.

To illustrate graphically, here’s a comparison of the U-3, the U-6 and John Williams’ ShadowStates Alternate rate that factors back in the workers the government has kicked off the labor force roles:

Consider: Even with a margin of three to five percent unemployment, which would encompass workers in between jobs or otherwise transitioning, which some are always doing, well over one-third of all Americans who should be working, could be working and would be working if the government had any business sense about it are not working.

Net, net, net: Continuing  and accelerating economic stagnation and deterioration, zero wage growth, sluggishness and that brother-in-law of yours who’s been out of work since the fourth season of Breaking Bad will still be sleeping on your couch, eating your food and drinking your beer for as far as the eye can see.

When some left-wing loon posts one of those stupid “Obama’s so great — he’s lowered the unemployment rate” bumper-sticker memes on Facebook, show them this post and ask what other lies the administration and its lackeys and toadies are telling?

The numbers…always look at the numbers.

Brother, can you spare a dime?

 

 

https://savejersey.com/2015/07/unemployment-statistics-obama/

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Readers Not buying Democrat Tax Increase will cover Pension Funding Gap

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Taxing the 1% won’t cover the under-funding gap, you’d either have to raise state income taxes by 29% overall or raise the NJ sales tax to 10% just to maintain existing benefits…such measures would face significant obstacles from State constitutional mandates on the use of specific revenue sources for particular purposes, such as the dedication of all income taxes to property tax relief. In addition, the State must obey federal mandates, honor bonded obligations and meet other funding demands. As a result, roughly 87% of State revenues are effectively committed to specific purposes before the budgeting process begins. The remaining funds—$4.3 billion in the current budget—are counted on for vital functions such as law enforcement, public safety, the judiciary, and executive department offices. A “millionaires’ tax” imposing an average $50,000 additional annual tax on each millionaire, for example, would make only a small dent in the funding shortfall. It would still require the State to impose a 23% income tax increase on every other taxpayer. As a matter of political reality, potential tax increases of this magnitude would first be preceded by substantial benefit reductions. If existing pension and retiree health benefits are considered beyond reach, the remaining options would involve actions such as reducing active employees’ health benefits to the equivalent of Bronze-level coverage under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“ACA”) and eliminating retirement benefits for employees hired after 2010.

Very few private sector jobs offer pensions anymore, and subsidized health care coverage until age 65 is only for public sector workers. So why are my taxes going to subsidize these things for public workers, some of whom make more than the median household income in Ridgewood? The original contract to provide a pension and healthcare coverage for those in public service was based off of trade-off: lower wages in return for retirement security. That trade-off no longer holds true, and because retirees are living longer in to their mid-80s on average, the pension and healthcare bills are piling up… and yet these guys in Trenton just want to keep on raising my taxes?

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New Jersey Democrats Move to Raise Taxes

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TRENTON—State Democrats plan to advance budget bills Tuesday that raise taxes on high earners and corporate profits to shore up the state’s underfunded pension system, a proposal likely doomed because Republican Gov. Chris Christie has pledged to veto any tax increases.

The annual budget dance in Trenton typically leads to interparty fighting in June, but observers said that this year’s proceedings were particularly defined by gridlock, resulting in more political theater than fiscal negotiations.  (Haddon/Wall Street Journal)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-jersey-democrats-move-to-raise-taxes-1435020808

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Bergen Exec Tedesco: In North Jersey, Meadowlands casino option still cash money

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HACKENSACK – The whole of New Jersey might be embroiled in casino controversy chaos, but to Bergen County Executive Jim Tedesco, the case is clear: any future North Jersey casino should be built in the Meadowlands in his own Bergen County.  (Bonamo/PolitickerNJ)

Bergen Exec Tedesco: In North Jersey, Meadowlands casino option still cash money | New Jersey News, Politics, Opinion, and Analysis

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A Good Way to Wreck a Local Economy: Build Casinos

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If Casinos didn’t help Atlantic City what makes you think they can help North Jersey ?

No one should look to the gambling industry to revive cities, “because that’s not what casinos do.”

Baltimore is a troubled city, as you know from The Wire. Like many troubled cities, Baltimore has turned to casino gambling as its solution. On August 26, a new Caesar’s casino will open on the site of an old chemical factory, a little more than 2 miles from the famous Inner Harbor and Camden Yards baseball stadium. Yet there’s already reason to expect the casino to disappoint everyone involved: the city looking for tax revenues, the workers hoping for jobs, the investors expecting hefty returns.

Outside of Las Vegas—now home to only 20 percent of the nation’s casino industry—casino gambling has evolved into a downscale business. Affluent and educated people visit casinos less often than poorer people do for the same reasons that they smoke less and drink less and weigh less.

Unfortunately for the casino industry’s growth hopes, downscale America has less money to spend today than it did before 2007. Nor is downscale America sharing much in the post-2009 recovery. From a news report on the troubles of a recently opened Ohio casino:

Ameet Patel, general manager of the property, says the softness in casino revenue that he and other operators have seen has been driven by a key demographic: women older than 50 who used to bet $50 to $75 per visit. The weak recovery has squeezed their gambling budgets, and their trips to casinos are fewer, he says.

What’s true in Ohio applies nationwide. Casino revenues had still not recovered their 2007 peaks as of the spring of 2014, when again they went into reverse in most jurisdictions. Moody’s now projects that casino revenues will drop through the rest of 2014 and all of 2015, slicing industry earnings by as much as 7.5 percent.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/a-good-way-to-wreck-a-local-economy-build-casinos/375691/

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Poll: Millennials Are in Search of a Different Kind of Career

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By Gillian B. White
The Atlantic
June 15, 2015

There have been many labels thrust upon the Millennial generation, especially when it comes to their work ethic. The group has been called lazy, entitled, and spoiled—but at the same time the generation has also been heralded for its collective innovation and desire to work for something other than money.

While America may still not know quite how to pin down the drive and desires of this generation, it does seem that their views on jobs and careers differ from their Boomer parents and the Gen Xers who came just before them. The most recent Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll separated respondents into a younger group of those “just starting out” and an older group of participants who were more established in order to determine whether or not these groups saw things differently on a variety of issues. In many instances there are, in fact, generational differences in perspective, but on some questions, Americans aren’t quite as far apart as they might seem.

When asked what their primary concern was during their first job, about 64 percent of older Americans talked about  making as much money as possible or learning new skills. When asked the same question, younger Americans were much more likely to say that their top priority was doing something that they found enjoyable or making a difference in society, with 57 percent choosing one of these options.

https://www.govexec.com/excellence/promising-practices/2015/06/poll-millennials-are-search-different-kind-career/115255/?oref=govexec_today_nl

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Ridgewood chamber’s lunch bunch builds business

parking CBD fullhouse theridgewoodblog.net

JUNE 10, 2015    LAST UPDATED: WEDNESDAY, JUNE 10, 2015, 11:45 AM
BY AIMEE LA FOUNTAIN
CORRESPONDENT |
THE RIDGEWOOD NEWS

A new subset of the Ridgewood Chamber of Commerce called the Brown Bag Lunch Bunch (BBLB) has formed for women business owners.

“It’s something I’ve wanted to do for a long time,” said Ridgewood Chamber Executive Director Joan Groome of the group, which started in 2013.

The idea came about when some chamber members wanted to meet during the day because they were unavailable during regular early morning or evening hours for meetings.

“I thought, ‘This is perfect for a women’s group’ and that’s how it started,” Groome said.

Meetings take place at 9 a.m. and 11 a.m. on Tuesdays.

The purpose of BBLB is to give Ridgewood small business owners a chance to network.

“It’s women helping women in business,” Groome said. “It’s a very dynamic group.”

Lena Antaramian, owner of Live Laugh Love Photography, specializing in children and family photos, has attended meetings for two years.

“Everyone’s energized and it’s great to see women achieving their objectives, making their dreams come true and building their businesses,” she said.

Groome estimated that about half of the members are new or experienced business owners and the rest work for various companies. They have backgrounds in many areas including healthcare, IT, financial advisement and marketing.

During meetings, the women give suggestions, help with referrals, plan events and offer encouragement.

“It’s about real situations and real concerns,” Groome said.

https://www.northjersey.com/news/business/lunch-bunch-builds-business-in-ridgewood-1.1352827

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Is work right-wing propaganda, Mike Rowe Explains

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Hey Mike

Your constant harping on “work ethic” is growing tiresome. Just because someone’s poor doesn’t mean they’re lazy. The unemployed want to work! And many of those who can’t find work today, didn’t have the benefit of growing up with parents like yours. How can you expect someone with no role model to qualify for one of your scholarships or sign your silly “Sweat Pledge?” Rather than accusing people of not having a work-ethic, why not drop the  and help them develop one?

Craig P.

Hi Craig, and Happy Sunday!

I’m afraid you’ve overestimated the reach of my foundation, as well as my ability to motivate people I’ve never met. For the record, I don’t believe all poor people are lazy, any more than I believe all rich people are greedy. But I can understand why so many do.

Everyday on the news, liberal pundits and politicians portray the wealthy as greedy, while conservative pundits and politicians portray the poor as lazy. Democrats have become so good at denouncing greed, Republicans now defend it. And Republicans are so good at condemning laziness, Democrats are now denying it even exists. It’s a never ending dance that gets more contorted by the day.

A few weeks ago in Georgetown, President Obama accused Fox News of “perpetuating a false narrative” by consistently calling poor people “lazy.” Fox News denied the President’s accusation, claiming to have only criticized policies, not people. Unfortunately for Fox, The Daily Show has apparently gained access to the Internet, and after a ten-second google-search and a few minutes in the edit bay, John Stewart was on the air with a devastating montage of Fox personnel referring to the unemployed as “sponges,” “leeches,” “freeloaders,” and “mooches.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/wp/2015/05/14/daily-shows-jon-stewart-buries-fox-news-on-coverage-of-poverty-president-obama/

Over the next few days, the echo chamber got very noisy. The Left howled about the bias at Fox and condemned the one-percent, while the Right shrieked about the bias at MSNBC and bemoaned the growing entitlement state. But through all the howling and shrieking, no one said a word about the millions of jobs that American companies are struggling to fill right now. No one talked the fact that most of those jobs don’t require an expensive four-year degree. And no one mentioned the 1.2 trillion dollars of outstanding student loans, or the madness of lending money we don’t have to kids who can’t pay it back, educating them for jobs that no longer exist.

I started mikeroweWORKS to talk about these issues, and shine a light on a few million good jobs that no one seems excited about. But mostly, I wanted to remind people that real opportunity still exists for those individuals who are willing to work hard, learn a skill, and make a persuasive case for themselves. Sadly, you see my efforts as “right wing propaganda.” But why? Are our differences really political? Or is it something deeper? Something philosophical?

You wrote that, “people want to work.” In my travels, I’ve met a lot of hard-working individuals, and I’ve been singing their praises for the last 12 years. But I’ve seen nothing that would lead me to agree with your generalization. From what I’ve seen of the species, and what I know of myself, most people – given the choice – would prefer NOT to work. In fact, on Dirty Jobs, I saw Help Wanted signs in every state, even at the height of the recession. Is it possible you see the existence of so many unfilled jobs as a challenge to your basic understanding of what makes people tick?

Last week at a policy conference in Mackinac, I talked to several hiring managers from a few of the largest companies in Michigan. They all told me the same thing – the biggest under reported challenge in finding good help, (aside from the inability to “piss clean,”) is an overwhelming lack of “soft skills.” That’s a polite way of saying that many applicants don’t tuck their shirts in, or pull their pants up, or look you in the eye, or say things like “please” and “thank you.” This is not a Michigan problem – this is a national crisis. We’re churning out a generation of poorly educated people with no skill, no ambition, no guidance, and no realistic expectations of what it means to go to work.

These are the people you’re talking about Craig, and their number grows everyday. I understand you would like me to help them, but how? I’m not a mentor, and my foundation doesn’t do interventions. Do you really want me to stop rewarding individual work ethic, just because I don’t have the resources to assist those who don’t have any? If I’m unable to help everyone, do you really want me to help no one?

My goals are modest, and they’ll remain that way. I don’t focus on groups. I focus on individuals who are eager to do whatever it takes to get started. People willing to retool, retrain, and relocate. That doesn’t mean I have no empathy for those less motivated. It just means I’m more inclined to subsidize the cost of training for those who are. That shouldn’t be a partisan position, but if it is, I guess I’ll just have to live with it.

Mike

PS. The Sweat Pledge wasn’t supposed to be partisan either, but it’s probably annoyed as many people as its inspired. I still sell them for $12, and the money still goes to mikeroweWORKS. You can get one here, even if you’re not applying for a scholarship. https://profoundlydisconnected.com/foundation/poster/

PPS. If you’d like Craig, I’ll autograph one for you!

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Stephen Moore: No President Obama, Poor People Don’t Work as Hard as Rich

US President Obama waves from a golf cart in Kailua

By Dan Weil   |   Tuesday, 09 Jun 2015 04:57 PM

Here’s an interesting take on income inequality that bucks conventional wisdom.

While President Barack Obama claims that low-income Americans work just as hard as their wealthy counterparts, that simply isn’t true, says Stephen Moore, a distinguished visiting fellow at The Heritage Foundation.

“Yes, many people in poor households heroically work very hard at low wages to take care of their families, no doubt about that,” he and Heritage Foundation research associate Joel Griffith write in The Washington Times.
Special: What the Bible Says About Investing (Shocking)
“Yet the average poor family doesn’t work nearly as much as the rich families do. And that’s a key reason why these households are poor.”

Census Bureau data show that for every hour worked by those in a low-income household, those in a wealthy household toil five hours.

“The idea that the rich are idle bondholders who play golf or go to the spa every day while the poor toil isn’t accurate,” Moore and Griffith explain.

“The finding that six out of 10 poor households have no one working at all is disturbing. Since they have no income from work, is it a surprise they are poor?”

Meanwhile, Americans are concerned about the growing inequality of income, but they don’t see the government as a solution for the most part, according to a new study by four esteemed professors for the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.

Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com https://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/income-Obama-work-pay/2015/06/08/id/649410/#ixzz3cgHVGBpa

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Auth urges cutting sales taxes statewide to spur economy

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June 6,2015
the staff of the Ridgewood blog

Ridgewood NJ , Assemblymen Robert Auth in February pushed for legislation to end county government in New Jersey now on Thursday, Connecticut and Rhode Island long ago abolished county government, while Massachusetts has eliminated most of its county governments.On March 26, 2015, Assemblyman Robert Auth made a motion to amend legislation, which grants Atlantic City as an Urban Enterprise Zone for 10 years (A-3920), to also extend the sales tax cut statewide.

Auth said we all live in districts that have lost jobs , which echoed what he said in February , “I’m watching businesses leave our state. A lot of it is in the district I represent,” said Auth. “I totaled up all the county budgets throughout the state. It’s like $6.5 billion a year in New Jersey. That’s a lot of money.”  https://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/02/he_end_of_county_government_in_nj_bergen_county_la.html  .

One of the most immediate and clear effects of sales tax on supply and demand involves an increase in the price of consumer goods. This occurs because businesses must pay more for the products they buy, including machinery, office furnishings and computer equipment. The higher cost of doing business translates into higher prices for new products. money.https://smallbusiness.chron.com/sales-tax-effect-supply-demand-20815.html

While sales tax affects supply directly, it only has an indirect effect on consumer demand. Besides altering the equilibrium price, which takes demand into account, sales tax also impacts consumers’ buying power. When sales tax rates are high, consumers spend more money on taxes and have less to spend on additional goods. This drives down general demand, or forces businesses to reduce prices to keep demand steady. This effect holds true even for items that are not subject to sales tax, such as grocery items and prescription drugs.https://smallbusiness.chron.com/sales-tax-effect-supply-demand-20815.html

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Career Coach: Now that you’ve graduated: Networking 101

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MAY 24, 2015    LAST UPDATED: SUNDAY, MAY 24, 2015, 1:21 AM
BY ELI AMDUR
SPECIAL TO NORTH JERSEY JOBS |
NORTH JERSEY JOBS

Three weeks ago, this column’s headline read, “Congratulations, graduate. Now what?” The discussion was all about being proactive in your career and in your job search. Inherent in being proactive is networking, and much was made of it in the article.

https://www.northjersey.com/news/business/career-news/now-that-you-ve-graduated-networking-101-1.1341220

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Living and working in paradise: the rise of the ‘digital nomad’

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Fed up with spending the 9 to 5 in a stuffy office? Anna Hart packs her Mac and follows the trend for extreme remote working – in Bali

By Anna Hart

7:00AM BST 17 May 2015

Typing these words, my forefinger sticks sweatily to the trackpad. When I glance up from the screen, I see steam rising from the neighbouring paddy field. As with all workplaces, there’s a steady hum of white noise: coffee being brewed, group meetings peppered with jargon such as “touch base”, “reach out”, “loop back” and “incentivise”.

But Hubud, AKA “Hub-in-Ubud”, Bali, isn’t a conventional office. It is a bamboo and wood building with an outdoor organic café and a pretty garden dotted with beanbags – and monkeys, as it is just 100m from Ubud’s famous Monkey Forest. For everyone who has ever come back from holiday and wished they could have stayed, I am living the dream – and working in paradise.

• Five reasons why everyone should live abroad at least once

This is one of a rapidly increasing number of co-working spaces, where freelancers, sole traders and small companies rent desks and share printers and coffee machines. But even within that hip, fast-evolving realm, Hubud is an outlier – and its 250-strong community believes that this highly covetable office environment is the workplace of the future. The diversity of this group also signals another change: that more and more jobs are becoming portable, possible to do at a digital distance – not just web designers and freelance writers but fashion designers, photographers, models, marketers and even a remote-working GP.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/features/11597145/Living-and-working-in-paradise-the-rise-of-the-digital-nomad.html

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Rise of the ‘silver collar’ workforce: When a four-year degree isn’t the right move

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April 27, 2015

By Rob Nikolewski │ Watchdog.org

This may come as bad news for parents who have spent tens of thousands of dollars sending their kids to expensive universities, but one path for young people getting a good job requires just a two-year degree or, in some cases, no college degree at all.

Continue reading Rise of the ‘silver collar’ workforce: When a four-year degree isn’t the right move

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Millennials Need Better Career Skills

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May 11,2015

Alfred Poor

The fact is that our recent college graduates are already costing our country billions of dollars every year. Not long ago, the average tenure for an entry-level worker was five years. Now, that average is below two years.

U.S. companies report that the average cost of replacing a single entry-level worker is $20,000 (lost productivity, recruitment, training, and other costs). Amortized over five years, that’s an annual overhead of $4,000. Amortized over just two years, however, it soars to $10,000 per year.

Our young workers have a hair-trigger when it comes to changing jobs, or even just quitting a job without a replacement in hand. This is costing our country $6,000 more per year per new entry-level worker. That’s money that could be much better spent on creating new jobs or paying higher salaries.

Our high schools and colleges need to start paying more attention to the “soft” career skills that our young workers need to land and keep good jobs after graduation.

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Can you say Misery Index? The labor participation rate is the same today as it was in 1977 under Jimmy Carter!

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Americans Not In The Labor Force Rise To Record 93,194,000

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/08/2015 08:57 -0400

In what was an “unambiguously” unpleasant April jobs payrolls report, with a March revision dragging that month’s job gain to the lowest level since June of 2012, the fact that the number of Americans not in the labor force rose once again, this time to 93,194K from 93,175K, with the result being a participation rate of 69.45 or just above the lowest percentage since 1977, will merely catalyze even more upside to the so called “market” which continues to reflect nothing but central bank liquidity, and thus – the accelerating deterioration of the broader economy.

https://snip.ly/HgsW#https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-08/americans-not-labor-force-rise-record-93194000