the staff of the Ridgewood blog
Ridgewood NJ, for much of the 20th century, fears of overpopulation dominated public discourse. After the post-World War II baby boom, which saw 76 million births in just 18 years in the U.S. alone, many believed the world was teetering on the edge of overcrowding. This concern was famously captured in Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 book The Population Bomb, which warned that unchecked population growth would lead to widespread famine, pollution, and even societal collapse.
Ehrlich’s predictions never came to fruition. While the global population has indeed skyrocketed—reaching over 8 billion people today—the “bomb” he predicted has not exploded. Instead, in many parts of the world, we’re witnessing the opposite phenomenon: a sharp decline in birth rates.
The “Baby Bottleneck” and Global Fertility Trends
According to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2024 report, the global total fertility rate (TFR)—the average number of births per woman—has more than halved since 1970, dropping to 2.25 in 2023. This is just above the replacement rate of 2.1, which is the number of births needed to maintain a stable population. However, the global average hides the fact that many countries, especially in the developed world, are well below replacement level.
The world’s population is expected to peak around 10.3 billion by the 2080s before starting to decline, but the situation is much more urgent for many individual countries. By 2050, more than three-quarters of countries worldwide may face shrinking populations.
The U.S. and Europe: Birth Rates in Decline
In the U.S., the total fertility rate hasn’t hit the replacement level since 2007, and it stood at just 1.62 in 2023. Economic hardships, cultural shifts, and the rise of women in the workforce have contributed to this decades-long decline. Social changes, such as the growing importance of higher education and the increased cost of raising children, have also played a significant role in discouraging larger families. The issue of declining birth rates is expected to feature prominently in the upcoming U.S. elections as the country grapples with how to sustain its aging population.
Europe, too, is experiencing record-low fertility rates. In Italy, for example, the birth rate fell to 1.2 in 2023, prompting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to declare it a national priority to reverse the trend. Other European countries, such as Greece and the UK, are seeing similar patterns, with some areas going years without a single birth.
Even Nordic countries, long praised for their family-friendly policies, are now facing declining birth rates despite generous government incentives. According to Finnish demographer Anna Rotkirch, having children has shifted from being a cornerstone of adulthood to a “capstone” that is considered only after other life goals are met.
Asia’s New Population Challenges
The birth rate decline is not limited to the West. In China, the government’s infamous one-child policy may have contributed to a steep drop in the fertility rate, which is now estimated at around 1 birth per woman. China’s government is now resorting to a mix of “carrot and stick” policies to encourage families to have more children. However, economic pressures, along with changing cultural norms, have made it difficult to reverse this trend.
South Korea, meanwhile, has the world’s lowest fertility rate, dropping to just 0.72 in 2023. Despite investing billions in pro-natal schemes, the country is on track for its population to halve by the end of the century.
Africa: The Exception to the Rule
While much of the world is facing a baby bust, countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing the opposite trend. With some of the highest fertility rates in the world, it’s projected that by the end of the century, more than half of the world’s births will occur in Africa. Countries like Niger and Angola are set to drive much of this population growth.
The Economic Consequences of Declining Birth Rates
As fertility rates drop globally, economists are sounding the alarm about the long-term economic impacts. Fewer young people mean fewer workers to support aging populations, which could lead to slower economic growth and greater financial strain on social welfare systems.
While some propose solutions like increased immigration or promoting longer-term employment for older workers, reversing these demographic trends has proven difficult in most countries. And with the rise of child-free lifestyles and the economic burdens of parenthood, it seems that fewer young people are choosing to have children at all.
A Future of Fewer Births
As governments continue to grapple with these complex issues, one thing is clear: the global baby bust is here to stay, at least for now. Whether through automation, immigration, or a shift in cultural attitudes, societies around the world will need to find new ways to adapt to a future with fewer young people.
It may not be the dystopia Ehrlich predicted in The Population Bomb, but it’s the reality we face today. How we navigate this new world will define our societies for generations to come.
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Work life balance and lack of affordable childcare are also causes.
Childcare workers are scarce because it is traditionally a low paying job. If we increase wages the cost will go up even more.