by Derek Michalski
Upper Saddle River NJ, in the end, pollsters failed to accurately forecast the election (so badly that many issued public apologies). As of November 8, 2021, Ciattarelli is trailing by 2.6% with 98% of expected vote in.
Pundits from across the political spectrum have used the surprising results to shape narratives that fit their agenda. Some theories put forth can be debunked by the numbers available, others are hard to prove without meaningful data.
So what can investors and donors learn from New Jersey’s 2021 General Election? Here’s three basic thoughts:
Jack Ciattarelli outperformed expectations, but couldn’t overcome numerical disadvantage
New Jersey is an extremely Democratic state. There’s over a million more registered Democrats than Republicans (2,576,742 vs. 1,506,450). There’s also more registered Democrats than “unaffiliated” and “third party” voters combined (2,492,712).
Those numbers give a glimpse of the challenge any statewide Republican faces, but doesn’t tell the full story. Nearly 9% of registered voters are inactive, which means election officials have reason to question their address, and that slightly reduces the Democrats advantage.
In 2017, Murphy defeated then-Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno by 1,203,110 to 899,583. As it stands, in this year’s election the governor has 1,285,351 votes (up 80,000+ vs 2017) to Ciattarelli’s 1,219,906 (up 320,000+ vs Guadagno).
Without a detailed breakdown of voter turnout by party registration, it’s still safe to conclude a lot more Republicans came out to vote in 2021 than 2017. Regardless, it wasn’t enough to carry Ciattarelli to victory.
In the next few years, Republicans should focus on closing the voter registration gap and attracting unaffiliated voters. Democrats should focus on building up their majorities to remain in power.
Republicans outperformed expectations, Democrats still dominate state legislature
The biggest story from this year’s election was NJ Senate Pres. Stephen Sweeney (D) losing his reelection bid to a relatively unknown truck driver running a shoestring campaign.
Despite that shocking upset, and Ciattarelli earning at least 320,000 more votes than the GOP’s 2017 nominee, Democrats still maintain a significant majority in both houses of the state legislature.
In 2022, new legislative maps for state and federal offices will be drawn by a redistricting committee based mostly on the 2020 U.S. census.
Republicans should advocate for new maps that create more competitive elections. Democrats should demand maps that closely resemble the status quo and protect incumbents that faced stiff competition.
Should donors invest in the NJGOP moving forward?
Donating to Democrats in New Jersey isn’t particularly courageous. For better or worse, it’s the best way for investors to gain access to those who pull the levers of power in the state (and many local governments).
For investors concerned about the 2022 midterm elections, especially those who want to stop/slow the legislative agenda of Pres. Joseph Biden and Congressional Democrats, is donating to New Jersey Republicans a smart bet? The short answer is “Yes, but with preconditions.”
Before donating/fundraising for the NJGOP, investors should ask party leaders the following questions:
Which districts are prime for flipping from Democrat to Republican?
How will GOP congressional candidates differentiate themselves from Democrats?
What is the party doing from an organizational standpoint (voter registration, vote by mail, early voting, etc.) and where will donations be allocated?
Just like investing in the stock market, political donations come with risk & reward. Those willing to take a chance should be educated in the structural issues as much as policy issues.
Jack got screwed. He beat Governor Bicuspid. Everyone knows it.
1. Democrats are good at cheating in elections and Democrat county clerks who announce the results and make feeble excuses for “poll worker errors” are looked at by many as being shady.
2. The NJ legislature has now changed with six new Republicans, including Ed Durr who beat the pants off Steve Sweeney. It will be difficult for Murphy to get nominations through if the Republican state senators (in more than a dozen counties) reject Murphy’s nominees. After 4 years of progressive Murphy garbage being forced on us I hope the Republican state senators give Murphy a consistently hard time.
3. The Jersey shore remains Republican conservative (thank God) and South Jersey counties, a large chunk of our state, have gone red. They sent the blue wave out to sea.
4. Republican momentum in the Garden State is in high gear and we cannot let it slow down. We have never been a Marxist (radical left progressive) state run by a tax-confiscating, authoritarian, mandate power hungry Trenton until recent times and we cannot let it continue. Keep voting Republican in local, state and congressional races. Demand better voting/election security from your state legislators including to require photo ID to vote and limit absentee voting and voting by mail.
Keep the faith but also write or call your NJ state senator and Assemblymen. They work for us.
Tip O’Neill was right; when you get down to it, all politics are local.
Which means you have to work on the local races, the outcomes of which often have more effects on folks than state and nationwide elections.
Read the minutes of the meetings of your local council and see what they are doing and the resolutions they are creating. You may be very surprised.
To the conspiracy poster: Seriously, if you have evidence of voter fraud, report it to every source possible, police, FBI, newspapers. But if you don’t have such evidence, shut the hell up. While i may not be happy with all the results, i don’t need some 600 pound moron sitting in their basement coming up with conspiracy theories all day and pontificating about something that never happened. Besides, if the Dems were that good at cheating, do you think Sweeney would have lost or do you think he just forgot to rig his own election this time around? Get a life.
Congrats to the two candidates, in fact, all the candidates who stood up, spoke their peace and ran for office. And, Jack should run for something again based on his numbers.