Month: October 2012

Cyber Threats: An Evolving and Pernicious Global Threat
October 6.2012
by Vassilios Damiras, Ph.D. (ABD)
GEOSTRATEGIC FORECASTING CORPORATION – GSFC CEO

Ridgewood NJ, Cyber threats are the new security dilemma of the twenty-first century. These kinds of high tech attacks threaten to destroy or severely damage critical global economic interests and undermine world wide security stability. The growing dependency on the information technology (IT) makes cybersecurity a vital component of the U.S. national security infrastructure. Lately, data collection, processing, storage, transmission capabilities, mobile, wireless, and cloud computing are increasing in huge numbers and make cyberattacks easily to occur.

The evolution of cyberterrorism is identified in incidents and the range of actors and targets. In the last couple years American intelligence observed increased breadth and high sophistication of computer network operation (CNO) by both non-state and state actors. The main targets
are global governmental and non-governmental targets such as multinational corporations and financial centers.

Non-state actors have the technology to create cyberattacks or endanger the cyber environment of the global socio-political system. The 2011, Arab Spring revolution in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya was successful to use cyberspace to pass its message. The authoritarian regimes were
unable to block or even destroy the revolutionaries’ internet sites. Moreover, hacker groups, such as Anonymous and Lulz Security (Lulz Sec), have executed distributed denial of service (DDOS). Under that process, they were successful to deface websites to various governmental
and corporate interests. They hacked NASDAQ and International Momentary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, hackers constantly are bypassing network security and target private companies that produce security technologies. Specifically, RIA was experienced a cyberattack in March
2011. The cyber intrusion obtained access to the companies algorithms, thus captured vital data of various U.S. defense contractors.

On a state level China and Russia are constantly engaging in cyber warfare, mainly targeting various U.S. military and economic interests across the globe. In China various universities offer classes to teach students how to become hackers. These specific courses offer a letter grade “C”
if a student hacks a dot com web site, a letter grade “B” if a student penetrates a dot org internet site, and a letter grade “A” if a student access a dot mil site on the world wide web.

It is evident cyberterrorism is a fast growing terrorist phenomenon. D. Deming in her testimony before the Special Oversight Panel on Terrorism stated:

Cyberterrorism is the convergence of terrorism and cyberspace. It is generally understood to mean unlawful attacks and threats of attacks against computers, networks, and the information stored therein whendone to intimidate or coerce a government or its people in furtherance
of political or social objectives. Further, to qualify as cyberterrorism, an attack should result in violence against persons or property, or at least cause enough harm to generate fear. Attacks that lead to death or bodily injury, explosion, plane crashes, water contamination, or severe economic loss would be examples. Serious attacks against critical infrastructure could be acts of cyberterrorism, depending on their impact. Attacks that disrupt nonessential services or that are mainly a costly nuisance would not.

Her remarks strongly and clearly indicated the seriousness of the cyber menace. The various U.S. intelligence agencies assess that the cyber threat will continue to grow due to the fast evolution and development of internet and related technologies. Also they identify two critical strategic
challenges regarding cyberterrorism: (1) the extreme difficulty of producing timely actionable warning of potential cyberattacks and (2) the extreme complex vulnerability associated with the IT supply chain for various U.S. networks.

Therefore, the U.S. government needs to research and develop new ways to protect its cyberspace for hackers emanating from non-state and state actors. The lack of seriously understanding the problem can endanger American political, economic, and military interests
across the globe. It is imperative the United States to show leadership and face this complex predicament. Cyberterrorism is a clear and present danger for U.S. national security.

N.J. Senate approves bill allowing more dropped charges in municipal court

More people would be eligible for having charges dropped against them in municipal court under a bill approved today by the Senate.

The municipal court version of pretrial intervention _ known as conditional dismissal _ had been available for first-time offenders charged with certain drug offenses, but the new bill (S2169) extends the program to those with non-drug offenses.

The program would not be available for those who already participated in a conditional discharge or dismissal or a supervisory treatment program such as pretrial intervention. It would also not be extended to those charge with organized criminal or gang activity; a continuing criminal business enterprise; a breach of the public trust by a public officer or employee; domestic violence; an offense against the elderly, disabled or minor; an motor vehicle offense involving alcohol or drugs; animal cruelty and certain disorderly persons offense.  (Spoto, The Star-Ledger)
https://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/10/nj_senate_approves_bill_allowi.htm

Medicaid oversight saved taxpayers $500M, N.J. comptroller says

New Jersey’s state comptroller’s office said Thursday that it helped save more than $500 million in taxpayer funds through close oversight of the Medicaid program.

An annual report released by state Comptroller Matthew Boxer detailed how fraud-prevention efforts kept $402 million from being paid out and how the agency worked to get another $102 million in improperly paid Medicaid funds returned to the state and federal governments.

Another highlight from the report was the $3 million in savings that came in response to the agency’s recommendation that eliminate clothing allowances for state workers who are not required to wear a uniform to work.  (Reitmeyer, The Record)

https://www.northjersey.com/news/Medicaid_oversight_saved_taxpayers_500M_NJ_comptroller_says.html

Why Medicare Premium Support Would Not Cost Future Beneficiaries $6,400 More
By Rea S. Hederman, Jr.
September 28, 2012
https://tiny.cc/o56olw

Opponents of Medicare premium support routinely charge that it would cost future retirees $6,400 more annually. In fact, this dollar amount is incorrect, and the charge is erroneous. Such false charges are based on an outdated Congressional Budget Office (CBO) model of House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan’s (R–WI) 2011 budget proposal.

Ryan’s 2012 proposal, which was included in the 2013 House budget resolution, included a very different version of Medicare premium support. The policy changes in Ryan’s second proposal and in his subsequent proposal with Senator Ron Wyden (D–OR) are substantial and significant. Curiously, these new changes also expose the methodological shortcomings of the CBO model. CBO director Douglas Elmendorf has publicly acknowledged that his agency does not have the methodological tools to accurately model Medicare premium-support plans and the impact of market competition.[1]
Estimates Based on Old Data and an Outdated Plan

It is inappropriate—indeed impossible—to use CBO’s original 2011 evaluation of the Ryan premium-support proposal to estimate the economic impact of his later plans.
For example, the 2011 proposal did not include traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare as a participant in the competitive premium-support system. Under CBO’s analytical limitations, the absence of traditional Medicare as a competing plan would result in higher costs for the Medicare program. This was one of the main reasons that CBO concluded that the 2011 Ryan plan would cost the private sector 11 percent more to cover beneficiaries than traditional Medicare.[2] But in a 2006 analysis, CBO found that, through a process of competitive bidding, private plans could deliver Medicare benefits that would be significantly less expensive than traditional Medicare in high-cost areas.[3]
As with any analysis, the demographics are crucial. Over a quarter of all Medicare beneficiaries live in high-cost areas and could benefit from allowing competition between traditional FFS and private plans. Medicare data also show that private Medicare Advantage HMO plans are 5 percent less costly than traditional FFS.[4]
Since CBO views FFS as less expensive in low-cost areas affecting 15 percent of all beneficiaries, it assumes that a plan without traditional FFS premiums will result in a more costly program. CBO’s static modeling also assumes that traditional Medicare will always be less expensive than private plans in these low-cost areas. Thus, CBO’s current modeling rules mean that eliminating traditional Medicare would increase costs for many Medicare beneficiaries.
2012 Changes
In 2012, Ryan and the House Budget Committee made a major change in the House budget resolution that includes traditional FFS Medicare as a competing option in a future premium-support program. This change was also reflected in the Wyden–Ryan proposal, which shares many similarities with the 2012 proposal. Whereas the 2011 proposal increased some costs, the 2012 proposal would reduce costs to Medicare beneficiaries. With the retention of traditional Medicare, no Medicare beneficiary could be worse off with premium support.
Another change in the 2012 House budget proposal (and also reflected in the Ryan–Wyden proposal) is a more detailed competitive bidding structure for Medicare to determine the amount of the government contribution to private plans on beneficiaries’ behalf. This structure is similar to the process today for plan payment in Medicare Part D.
Under a competitive bidding model, the contribution amount would vary based on bids by the competing companies, reflecting the real costs of providing health care in a competitive environment. FFS would be a bidder, which would establish a minimum benefit for beneficiaries. If FFS is the lowest bidder, then seniors would do no worse than the benefits and premiums under traditional Medicare. Moreover, under the 2012 House budget and Ryan–Wyden, a senior would be guaranteed at least two health plans whose premiums meet 100 percent of the contribution amount.
CBO Limitations
As noted, Elmendorf conceded that CBO simply does not have the tools to measure gains from competition among plans, which is the essence of Medicare premium support. CBO can easily score centralized price controls, but this means that market-based reforms will always be seen as less effective than price controls in generating “savings,” even if the controls introduce or aggravate costly distortions of the market such as shortages or cost shifting.
CBO ignores the cost of price controls in limiting access, and these price controls are often ignored because they are so damaging to beneficiaries. If centralized price schemes were superior to competition, then the economic history of the 20th century would have been quite different. Countries that centralized industries would have enjoyed more prosperity than they did in reality.
In its recent scores, CBO does give much credit to savings from competition. Curiously, the current scoring process not only contradicts previous CBO analysis; it is also out of step with some of the most recent academic work. University of Minnesota economists have found that premium support with competitive bidding could save 9.5 percent annually.[5] A more recent study found that premium support could reduce Medicare spending by 9 percent annually.[6]
These savings to Medicare would be even higher with potential gains from overall competition and innovation. It is likely that an entrepreneurial company could learn to compete successfully with FFS even in current low-cost areas. Instead of FFS being the baseline bid, an innovative company could deliver services at a lower price and thus save even more money without affecting beneficiary care.
Flawed Analyses
The House budget resolution authored by Ryan in 2012 contains a Medicare premium-support proposal that is significantly different from the 2011 budget proposal. With Medicare FFS forced to compete on a level playing field with private plans under premium support, the overall cost of the Medicare program would decrease in comparison to the 2011 Ryan plan and in comparison to current-law Medicare. As academic research shows, these savings can be quite significant. Indeed, they can improve the value of Medicare benefits to beneficiaries.
Any claim, in the media or elsewhere, that uses the CBO evaluation of the 2011 Ryan plan is fundamentally flawed and erroneous. Furthermore, CBO’s estimates are fundamentally flawed because the agency is unable to model market competition, the driver of virtually every other sector of the American economy. Medicare premium support would save money, and competition would ensure even greater savings for beneficiaries.
—Rea S. Hederman Jr. is Assistant Director of and Research Fellow in the Center for Data Analysis at The Heritage Foundation.
Show references in this report

[1]Douglas W. Elmendorf, “CBO’s 2011 Long-Term Budget Outlook,” testimony before Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives, June 23, 2011, https://budget.house.gov/uploadedfiles/623elmendorftestimony.pdf (accessed September 28, 2012).
[2]Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director, Congressional Budget Office, letter to Representative Paul Ryan, April 5, 2011, https://cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/121xx/doc12128/04-05-ryan_letter.pdf (accessed September 28, 2012).
[3]Congressional Budget Office, Designing a Premium Support System for Medicare, December 2006, https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/76xx/doc7697/12-08-medicare.pdf (accessed September 28, 2012).
[4]Medicare Payment Advisory Commission, Health Care Spending and the Medicare Program, June 2012, p. 146, https://www.medpac.gov/documents/Jun12DataBookEntireReport.pdf (accessed September 28, 2012).
[5]Roger Feldman, Robert Coulam and Bryan Dowd, “Competitive Bidding Can Help Solve Medicare’s Fiscal Crisis,” American Enterprise Institute, February 2012, https://www.aei.org/outlook/health/healthcare-reform/competitive-bidding-can-help-solve-medicares-fiscal-crisis/ (accessed September 28, 2012).
[6]Zirui Song, David M. Cutler, and Michael E. Chernew, “Potential Effects of Reforming Medicare Into a Competitive Bidding System,” Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 308, No. 5 (August 1, 2012), https://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=1273025 (accessed September 28, 2012).

https://tiny.cc/o56olw

Waiver approval clears way for massive Medicaid reform in New Jersey

The federal government has approved New Jersey’s request for a complete overhaul of its Medicaid program, a move that will give the state more flexibility in delivering Medicaid, as well as the opportunity to maintain or improve patient care at lower costs.

The changes to the program will have sweeping implications not just for poor families eligible for Medicaid, but also for seniors facing the prospect of nursing home; those that obtain behavioral health or addiction services from the state; and New Jersey residents with developmental disabilities.

It also changes the formula that Medicaid uses to compensate hospitals and other healthcare institutions.   (Keough, NJ Spotlight)

https://www.njspotlight.com/stories/12/10/05/waiver-approval-clears-way-for-massive-medicaid-reform-in-new-jersey/

Scholastic Book Fair Fundraiser
Mon, October 15, 2012 – Sat, October 20, 2012
9:00 AM – 5:00 PM
The YWCA Bergen County Nursery School, 112 Oak Street

Ridgewood NJ ,September 17, 2012-The YWCA Bergen County Nursery School is hosting a Scholastic Book Fair fundraiser from October 15 through 20, 2012 in the main lobby of the YWCA\’s 112 Oak Street, Ridgewood location. Fair hours are weekdays from 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. and Saturday from 9:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.

The fair will feature books for children and adults and all proceeds will benefit the YWCA\’s Nursery School program, which fosters children\’s intellectual, social, and physical development in a safe, nurturing environment. For more information contact Pat Finn, Director of Early Childhood Programs, at 201-444-5600, ext. 343.

Melinda Cronk, Rose Hueneke and Frances Hanson Ekblom top $2 million in September at Tarvin Realtors

FRIDAY OCTOBER 5, 2012, 12:09 PM
THE RIDGEWOOD NEWS

Melinda Cronk, Rose Hueneke and Frances Hanson Ekblom, sales associates at Tarvin Realtors in Ridgewood, were recognized by the company for sales success in the September. The agents each exceeded $2 million in sales for the month.

Cronk was named Salesperson of the Month in September, with sales in excess of $2.9 million. She has more than $11 million in sales written thus far in 2012.

She earned membership into the Tarvin Multi-Million Dollar Sales Club during her first year with the firm and, in 2010, ranked among the top five percent of agents who participated in residential sales in Ridgewood.

https://www.northjersey.com/ridgewood/172836691_Three_sales_agents_top__2_million_in_September_.html