Expect Poll Defying Outcome on Tuesday

By Charles Stampul

Trump is most likely to be awarded a second term after Tuesday.  Here are the reasons from least to greatest, with a single caveat:

1.  The mainstream media has much less power to influence than it had four years earlier.  Clever sophistry has devolved into outright and outlandish lies and omissions.  With recent attempts to cover up or brush aside provable facts of corruption connected to Joe and Hunter Biden, CNN, MSNBC, et. al. have lost any last trace of journalistic credibility.  Most polls are sponsored or otherwise connected to mainstream media.

2. The most influential pundit in all of the media has had a string of recent guests tacitly endorsing a vote against Biden.  In the last week, the usually two sided and persuadable Joe Rogan has released interviews with Matthew McConaughey, Kayne West, Alex Jones, Glenn Greenwald and Gad Saad and has given no chance of a counter punch from the Biden/ Harris camp.

3.  People are motivated primarily by fear.  A large portion of Americans dislike some or all aspects of Trump’s personality, his insults, his puffery, his appearance, his speaking style…  At the same time, most Americans have taken personal safety and civility for granted.  Ballot in hand, many Trump haters are going to think honestly about growing leftist violence and cast a vote for safety.

4. The single biggest issue in this campaign was not an issue at all in 2016. It is now clear that lock downs have indirectly caused more death than they directly prevented.  Reasonable people can differ on the effectiveness of face masks for mitigating the spread of Covid-19 and other viruses, but there is little question that it is having a real and detrimental effect on how we view and interact with each other.  The vote of people who think that there has been two much of a sacrifice of individual freedom in response to Covid, that it should be left up to individuals to decide if they want to wear a mask, or enter a business, will go to Trump first, Libertarian party candidate Jo Jorgensen second, and Joe Biden last.

The caveat, of course, is mail-in voting.  It is easier to vote this year which means that more people will vote.  At the margins, this should favor higher Democratic turnout, as exit polls of previous elections show Democrats less dutiful than Republicans.