Mark Twain is credited with saying “figures don’t lie, but liars figure.” If he were around today Twain’s quote might go something like this: “Figures do lie, and liars figure out how to make people believe them.”
Granted, not as catchy.
But my quote goes a long way toward explaining something that is bothering many political pundits today. President Obama whined last week that he’s not getting enough credit for the economy.
Democrats are besides themselves wondering why Americans are so angry that they might be willing to elect Donald Trump president when the official unemployment rate is only 5%, oil prices are near their lowest level in a decade and the economy has been expanding for seven straight years.
Why aren’t Americans happier?
One of those pundits made me chuckle Tuesday night when he was talking about Trump’s primaries victories in another five states. He suggested that Americans were somehow being brainwashed by the media into thinking the economy was really bad when in fact it was good.
By Dave Boyer – The Washington Times – Thursday, April 28, 2016
The White House labored Thursday to explain a first-quarter economic report showing the weakest growth in two years, even as President Obama was trumpeting his mastery of the economy in a New York Times Magazine interview.
The Department of Commerce reported that U.S. gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2016, the third straight sluggish start to a year. Consumer spending and business purchases both fell, continuing trends that could have ominous implications for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign as she tries to claim the mantle as Mr. Obama’s successor.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy sputtered in the first quarter, expanding at the slowest pace in two years as business slashed investment by the steepest amount since the Great Recession.
Gross domestic product, the sum of a nation’s economy, slowed to a 0.5% annual growth rate in the first three months of 2016, the government said Thursday. The U.S. had grown 1.4%, 2% and 3.9% in the prior three quarters.
“It’s not just technology defining the youngest working-age population, it’s also a distinct optimism and a desire to do work that matters,” says youth psychologist Dr. Jason Richardson.
“I don’t think millennials lack the work ethic and soft skills that others say they do. Many of those things come with age regardless of when you were born. But I do think millennials have been coddled. Many have an aversion to seek resolutions to problems within themselves – outside of technology.”
Richardson, author of “It’s All BS! We’re All Wrong, And You’re All Right!” (www.drjasonrichardson.com), offers millennials suggestions for expanding their skillset.
• Try more authentic “connections.” Competition among millennials can be fierce, especially when it comes to how your social media profile looks. You can have a thousand friends, “Like” the cool, trendy items and have an impressive bio with the right degree from the right school. More one-on-one time with your peers, however, helps with truly interpersonal settings, including working with people from older generations. • Distinguish yourself by offering your full attention – a rare commodity nowadays. People never have to be bored anymore. If we must wait for anything, we can find distraction in our smartphones, which are on-demand boredom-killers. On the job, dividing your attention while on your phone with clients, management, during conference calls, etc. will not be appreciated. It’s not multitasking when your attention is compromised – a major hindrance in communication. • Take a cue from older generations; grow thicker skin. Today, colleges are catering to students with “safe spaces” in case their feelings are hurt. Professors often warn students of “trigger warnings” in case academic content could be seen as offensive. Older generations were not as coddled, which helps them accept criticism at work. Thin skin can keep you from finding solutions to problems. Learn to accept professional criticism graciously so you may think more clearly on possible solutions. • Base progress on doing good and less on feeling good. Doing good and feeling good don’t always coincide. Remember, you’re the baby who learned to walk despite many failed attempts. You didn’t need to feel good to be successful. Place value in the work and personal gains made as you move forward. Think of yourself as continually developing or becoming. You are more than what’s written on your social media profile.
“We can’t always control the conditions of this amazing world,” Richardson says, “but you can take control of the amazing you, if you believe you can.”
About Jason Richardson, Psy.D., MBA
Dr. Jason Richardson (www.drjasonrichardson.com) is a psychologist who earned his principles for self-improvement as a world-traveling athlete, doctoral student and student of life. He maintained top-10 status on the professional BMX circuit for most of his 15-year career, retiring with a gold medal at the 2007 Pan American Games.
A Billion Dollar Stool to Reach the Bottom Rung of the Job Ladder
Adam Millsap
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
In February, the Obama administration proposed a “First Job” initiative. The main goal of the aptly titled initiative is to help unemployed young people obtain their first job by spending $5.5 billion on grants, training, and direct wages. Unfortunately – but unsurprisingly – the press release failed to acknowledge the most significant factor impeding employment in this age group: the minimum wage.
Everyone knows that a first job is a vital step in a young person’s development. Research has shown that work experience at a young age teaches positive work habits, time management, perseverance, and improves self-confidence. Increases in teenage employment also reduce the rate of violent crime. Yet despite these well-known benefits, the US maintains a minimum wage policy that makes it very difficult for all but the most productive teenagers to find a job.
When the minimum wage was discussed in the late 19th and early 20th century it was in the context of preventing the least skilled, most “undesirable” workers from finding a job, with the goal of eradicating the unemployable people. For the next 80-plus years it was common knowledge that a minimum wage would reduce employment among the least-skilled workers. The only debate was about whether such a reduction was desirable from society’s perspective, as many of the appalling eugenicists of the time contended.
As late as 1987, the New York Times editorial staff recommended a minimum wage of $0 because of its negative effects on employment. The Times argued that the minimum wage was an ineffective anti-poverty tool whose employment costs outweighed any benefits from higher wages.
Consumers have been the missing link in the U.S. economic recovery and are likely to remain so absent a major change in sentiment.
Despite the seemingly endless stream of Wall Street economists who believe the U.S. is about to snap out of its malaise, most Americans think the economy is bad and getting worse, according to several recent surveys.
One of the more glaring examples of how strong pessimism has become is Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index. The measure gauges the difference between respondents who say the economy is improving or declining. The most recent results are not good.
Fully 59 percent say the economy is “getting worse” against just 37 percent who say it is “getting better.” That gap of 22 percentage points is the worst since August, according to Gallup, which polled 3,542 adults. The index carries a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
As a proposal to regulate Uber and other car-hailing services moves closer to becoming reality in Newark, the company says it is prepared to take its cars and go home. Dan Ivers, NJ.com, Read more
Ridgewood NJ, Improving economic conditions have finally caught up to millennials, providing them with a brighter job market, according to the United States Department of Labor.
But a recent Federal Reserve Bank of New York report says the devil is in the details. Not all new college graduates are doing equally well. The kind of degree they earned is an enormous factor in the job hunt.
“There’s no question that your field of study significantly alters your prospects, but even having chosen the right field is no guarantee,” says Matt Stewart, an entrepreneur and co-founder of College Works Painting (www.collegeworks.com), an internship program that provides practical business experience for college students.
“How you approach your field, such as engagement at an internship, can boost your professional prospects immensely.”
For example, interns with College Works Painting operate their own house-painting business with hands-on guidance from mentors. They learn valuable leadership skills by functioning as leaders in a business.
“Unemployment for our alumni has remained at less than 4 percent, including when youth unemployment exceeded 16 percent a few years ago,” Stewart says. “This kind of challenging yet fun student experience helps ensure a good career for college graduates right out of the gate.”
He offers tips about what students should look for in an internship so they can gain the professional experience they need to land a job after graduation.
• Know what you will actually be doing. While simply being in a company’s culture has value, many businesses assign students to their lowest-level work. Grunt work, to some extent, is a fact of life in most professions. But that kind of work won’t propel a student’s career. Consider an internship that gives you real responsibility and provides experiences that will definitely come in handy in your future career. • Consider a company’s internship recognition. Don’t accept an internship with just any organization. Think about the business awards the company has won, the type of articles that have been written about the company, and how the company contributes to their industry and community. If you can, get information on how other former interns fared. • For any student, real experience is crucial. Whether you’re an artist, athlete, musician, theater major, English student, a STEM-field student, or a business major or future entrepreneur, getting experience often comes with a heavy price. This includes the loss of personal or family finances. Look for opportunities that provide guidance while allowing you to apply skills to real-life challenges such as budgeting, marketing, and managing employees. These are transferable skills that apply to any industry.
“Regardless of how the economy is doing, you’ll want to put forth your best effort,” Stewart says. “As we’ve seen, the market can take a nosedive at any time.”
About Matt Stewart
Matt Stewart is co-founder of College Works Painting (collegeworks.com), which provides business experience for thousands of college students each year. The award-winning program also offers high-quality house-painting services for homeowners.
Tech startups love millennials. Tasty, tasty millennials who get underpaid, overworked, churned up and turned into nourishment for venture capitalists. Millennials are the Soylent Green of the tech world.
As each batch gets mashed up, there’s a long line of new hires eager to be made into the next meal for the execs and their billionaire backers, as tech survivor Dan Lyons shows in a scathingly funny new book, “Disrupted: My Misadventure in the Start-Up Bubble” (Hachette Books).
Lyons became a strange kind of celebrity a decade ago when he began posting nutty but funny insights as “Fake Steve Jobs.” Today he’s a writer for HBO’s brilliant tech comedy “Silicon Valley,” but in between he blogged for a Boston tech company called HubSpot and wrote this book about it.
Bloomberg More Americans are finding jobs at retail stores, but they aren’t getting the kind of pay and hours they’d like.
The number of able-bodied Americans entering the labor force has surged since last fall. But in a marked change from earlier in the recovery, more of them are finding jobs right away instead of just looking for work.
What’s going on? It’s hard to say for sure, but circumstantial evidence in the latest U.S. jobs report suggests many of these newly employed workers have found part-time work with mediocre pay.
The participation rate hit a two-year high of 63% in March, climbing from a 38-year low of 62.4% in September, the government said Friday. A person is considered part of the labor force if he finds or job or is actively searching for one.
New Jersey’s unemployment rate fell two percentage points in February, even as the state recorded a loss of more than 10,000 private-sector jobs. Samantha Marcus, NJ.com Read more
POSTED 4:57 PM, MARCH 17, 2016, BY KFOR-TV & K. QUERRY
NEW YORK – A CEO of a fast-food company is causing a stir on social media after claiming that he wants to create a fully automated restaurant.
“We could have a restaurant that’s focused on all-natural products and is much like an Eatsa, where you order on a kiosk, you pay with a credit or debit card, your order pops up, and you never see a person,” Carl’s Jr. CEO Andy Puzder told Business Insider.
Puzder says the automated restaurant would be cheaper since he wouldn’t have to worry about rising minimum wage.
Western democracy faces no mortal threat but it is going through an acute stress test
When people strike comparisons with Hitler — or Munich — I usually reach for my earplugs. The same applies to the Great Depression. There is nothing on today’s horizon that compares with the Nazis or the mass privation that followed the 1929 stock market crash.
Yet there are echoes we would be foolish to ignore. Western democracy faces no mortal threat. But it is going through an acute stress test. On both sides of the Atlantic, people have lost faith in their public institutions. They are also losing trust in their neighbours. Co-operation is fraying and open borders are in question. We can no longer be sure the centre will hold — or even that it deserves to.
The most insidious trend is vanishing optimism about the future. Contrary to what is widely believed, the majority’s pessimism pre-dates the 2008 financial collapse. At the height of the last property bubble in 2005, Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, said society could not long tolerate a situation where most people were suffering from declining standards of living.
“This is not the sort of thing that a democratic society — a capitalist democratic society — can readily accept without addressing,” he said. This came after several years of falling median income.
For most Americans and Europeans the situation is worse today than it was then. Many have since had their homes repossessed. Median incomes were lower in 2015 than when Mr Greenspan issued his warning. A majority on both sides of the Atlantic believe their children will be worse off than they are.
A poll released Monday shows New Jersey following national trends in residents’ gloomy assessment of their income and the larger economy. The study from Stockton University’s polling institute found that a majority of New Jersey residents feel their income has failed to keep up with increases in the cost of living. 55 percent of respondents described their income as “falling behind the cost of living,” while 37 percent said it was “just keeping pace.” JT Aregood, PolitickerNJ Read more
According to today’s employment report, 59.8 percent of Americans ages 16 and older had jobs in February. That’s the highest employment-to-population ratio in years, and the rate of increase is clearly on the rise.
Look back some more years, though, and the story is different. The recent gains are real, but by the standards of the past few decades, a 59.8 percent employment-to-population ratio isn’t impressive.
Let this be another lesson in how the presentation of information shapes our understanding of it. The second chart paints a gloomy picture — the picture that Donald Trump may be referring to when he says the true unemployment rate is 40 percent or higher. A 59.8 percent employment-to-population ratio means that 40.2 percent of American civilians 16 and over don’t have jobs. That percentage includes high-school students, 100-year-olds and lots of other people who don’t want or need jobs, so the true unemployment rate clearlyisn’t 40 percent. Still, in April 2000 the employment-to-population ratio peaked at 64.7 percent. Now it’s significantly lower. What’s going on?
The answer that I keep gravitating to is that despite the 4.9 percent unemployment rate, the job market is still pretty weak, and probably malfunctioning in some way. This isn’t the only possible answer. In 2014, for example, two economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York divided people responding to the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (from which the unemployment rate and the charts in this article are derived) into 280 cohorts defined by “birth, sex, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment.” They determined that most of the decline in the employment-to-population ratio since 2000 could be explained by the changing makeup of the population.
But demographics aren’t destiny. The employment-to-population ratios by age group, for example, have changed a lot since 1990. First, the women:
