Readying for Sandy, NJ Transit erred in modeling storm
By Ryan McNeill and Janet Roberts
NEW YORK | Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:12pm EST
(Reuters) – New Jersey Transit incorrectly used federal government software that otherwise could have warned officials against a disastrous decision to leave hundreds of millions of dollars worth of equipment in a low-lying rail yard before Superstorm Sandy struck, a Reuters examination has found.
The agency based its decision, at least in part, on software provided by the National Weather Service that allows users to simulate an approaching hurricane and show areas vulnerable to flooding from storm surge, according to Sandy-related forecast documents obtained by Reuters from New Jersey Transit. Exactly how the agency used the software is unclear because the agency declined to answer any specific questions.
Reuters asked for the documents that New Jersey Transit relied upon in deciding to leave the trains at its Meadows Maintenance Complex in Kearny, New Jersey. Among the documents was a screen-shot of storm prediction software that indicated the user had the storm traveling northeast, away from the New York area, while moving at the wrong speed.
As a result, the software predicted surges that were about half the levels actually forecast – errors that underestimated the threat to the Meadows complex.
New Jersey Transit takes issue with the findings. But a Reuters analysis shows that had the software been used to produce surge estimates similar to forecasts, agency leaders could have seen a different picture. The result would have pointed to potential inundation of a large portion of the rail yard, mirroring the flooding that ultimately occurred.
Other metro railroads in the region moved their rolling stock to rail lines and yards on higher ground.
https://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/12/us-storm-sandy-newjerseytransit-idUSBRE90B00I20130112
Even now, the Bergen line is overcrowded. I rarely get a seat coming home, and the express trains upon which I’ve come to rely are still off the schedule. I have a sneaking suspicion that NJT will use this as an excuse to impermanently reduce services even further.
NJT needs a board overhaul. This kind of mismanagement of our tax funded infrastructure is inexcusable. I sent an email to their board of directors to this effect about two months ago, and never got a response (though the one lawyer on the Board stalked my linkedin profile…wonder if he realized I would see it…anyway, now I can see his and I know more about him too).
I am desperately looking for a job in New Jersey. I can’t handle the commute anymore, it’s just not worth it.
NJ Transit has made the commute from Ridgewood a nightmare. Express service pretty much cancelled — after a $40 million renovation just two years ago to build this big station, it is now no longer a key express stop per the schedule. Trains are so constantly overcroweded that there are fights (literally) over space to get on the trains. Emails, letters and calls go unanswered. Now, we have large Advertisements for Empire Casino “decorating” the “RIDDGEWOOD” signs at this new station. I am all in favor of advertisements to reduce the financial strain on riders — but were these ad placements part of the drawings? I dont recall seeing them. Village officials never should have agreed to such a large expansion of the station and large advertisements for NY casinos without a committment from NJ Transit to maintain certain service levels. (BTW – why would a NJ based organization like NJ Transit agree to place large ads for a NY casino on its property when Atlantic City is suffering???) Hopefully this will serve as a warning to future Village leaders not to trust NJ Transit.
Yup #2, spot on. It makes no sense. However, NJT is spewing rainbows and ponies in the press: https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/01/14/nj-transit-service-back-to-pre-sandy-levels-into-nyc/. I guess the Main / Bergen lines are not a priority. One of Ridgewood’s selling points for me was the train. Since I’ve moved here, I’ve seen them destroy the train station and endured 2 years of construction. After Irene we had overcrowded trains for months because NJT accommodated the Metro North passengers who were bused to Rt. 17. Glad to see Metro North help us out now…oh wait they’re not. One express train at 6:11 AM! Woo hoo! THANKS A BUNCH!
I’ve seen nothing but deterioration in the 4 years I’ve been in town. $40m on a station, then cut the service. There really should be a criminal investigation.
In hindsight, Montclair or Summit might have been a smarter move. Hell, even Edison is a shorter ride into Penn.
I guess the Main / Bergen lines are not a priority.
Bergen is only a priority for funding purposes…