the staff of the Ridgewood blog
Trenton NJ, New Jersey’s gubernatorial race in 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in decades, with Republicans sensing a prime opportunity to reclaim the governor’s mansion. Fueled by an unexpectedly close result in the 2024 presidential election, where Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by just 6 points, the GOP is gearing up for what they believe could be a historic victory.
A Changing Political Landscape
Traditionally viewed as a solidly Democratic state, New Jersey hasn’t elected a Republican senator since the 1970s or backed a GOP presidential candidate since 1988. However, the Garden State has a track record of electing Republican governors, and recent trends suggest the political tide may be shifting.
In 2021, Governor Phil Murphy narrowly secured reelection by just over 3 points, a margin that rattled state Democrats. The 2024 presidential election results, showing significant Republican gains, have only deepened concerns within the party.
Democratic strategist Henry de Koninck called the swing “substantial,” attributing part of the decline to low turnout in key Democratic counties like Hudson, Essex, and Passaic. He warned that complacency within the state’s Democratic leadership has alienated activists and weakened local party infrastructure.
Republicans Smell Opportunity
For New Jersey Republicans, the 2025 race presents a golden opportunity. GOP strategist Alex Zdan remarked, “This is a prime opportunity to capitalize on President Trump’s strong performance in the state. We’ve got a competitive field, but that can yield great results.”
Leading the Republican pack are two frontrunners:
- Jack Ciattarelli, the 2021 GOP nominee, running as a more moderate, establishment candidate.
- Bill Spadea, a conservative radio host with strong ties to the Trump-aligned faction of the party.
Other Republican contenders include state Sen. John Bramnick, former state Sen. Edward Durr, and former Burlington City Mayor Jim Fazzone.
Jeanette Hoffman, a GOP strategist, noted that voter registration trends favor Republicans, with more new GOP registrants than Democrats this year. She emphasized affordability issues, saying, “Republicans have their best shot after two terms of Gov. Murphy and a Democratic legislature making everything more expensive.”
Democrats Face a Crowded Primary
On the Democratic side, six major candidates have declared their intent to run, including:
- Reps. Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer
- New Jersey Education Association president Sean Spiller
- Former State Senate President Steve Sweeney
- Newark Mayor Ras Baraka
- Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop
Democratic Party Chair Leroy Jones acknowledged the challenges ahead, admitting the party must “recalibrate” its messaging to focus on economic concerns like affordability and cost of living. Many of the Democratic candidates have already emphasized these issues in their early campaigns.
No More “The Line”
This election will also mark the first gubernatorial race without New Jersey’s controversial ballot design system known as “The Line.” A federal judge ruled the system unconstitutional, paving the way for an office-block ballot that could impact both parties’ primaries.
Pollster Dan Cassino noted the elimination of “The Line” creates uncertainty, saying, “We just don’t know what the likely voter model will look like.”
Is New Jersey Now a Swing State?
While Democrats remain confident in their ability to hold the governor’s office, strategists warn against complacency. De Koninck emphasized the need for the party to focus on “kitchen-table issues” and appeal to middle- and working-class voters.
For Republicans, the stars seem aligned. After two terms of Democratic control under Governor Murphy and a state legislature often criticized for high taxes and rising costs, many believe the GOP has its best shot in years.
The 2025 gubernatorial race is already proving to be a high-stakes battle, with both parties acknowledging the growing competitiveness of the state. As one strategist summed it up: “This election is by no means a cakewalk. New Jersey is now a swing state.”
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