US: Two Views of Declining Labor Force Participation
Ridgewood NJ, Here is an interesting economics view of the US labor force participation decline from head economist at Citi.
The interesting thing is that there are quite a few forces at work; older population, kids staying in school longer or going for higher degrees, women opting out, etc. Most important is the last point, the BLS projects it will continue to decline for another 10 years.
US: Two Views of Declining Labor Force Participation
1●It’s Temporary. Drop in labor force participation (LFPR) since 2007 reveals cyclical effect of unemployment previously masked by dominant demographics and too brief recessions.
–Downturn in LFPR associated with surge in long-term unemployed
–Correlation at state level between rising unemployment and falling LFPR.
–Large increase in discouraged workers, non-participants who want a job.
–Job-finding rates fell proportionately for recent and long-term jobless.
●Delayed response (increase) to falling unemployment implies that LFPR will rise strongly for several years after the economy reaches full employment.
2-●No, it’s Permanent. Major part of LFPR drop reflects mix of demographic, structural and other policy effects that may be only partially reversed over only a very long period.
–Population shifting to less-attached cohorts, including older, still prime-age workers.
–LFPR among prime-age women falling since 2000, high marginal tax rates at low incomes.
–Rising education enrollment.
–Accelerating trend in disabilities suggests more permanent hysteresis effect.
–Recent declines in discouraged workers and ‘not in labor force who want a job’
BLS projects that LFPR will decline another 1.5 percentage points by 2022.
Labour force will continue to decline as USA allows foreign countries to dump their cheap products here.
I’m not a fan or proponent of unions.
I’m a believer in free markets.
However, when we allow foreign cheap goods into our country and we are denied free access to that countries market, what is the point?
Every foreign auto, built with cheap labor, parts, etc is another nail in the coffin of the USA economy.
USA manufacturers of metal, plastic, paints, glues, interior parts, engines, transmissions, differentials, radios etc do not participate in the supply chain.
These essential industries are dying.
The next time you buy some foreign piece of shit, expect to pay higher income taxes to the federal government that now has to support this workers.
(this post is not against any foreign owned auto makers that employee US citizens in plants on our soil-they do the right thing)
I conduct business worldwide, and never once made a dime in China, South Korea, Japan, or Germany.
Your facts are wrong on autos. There is lots of auto production and supply chain growth in ‘right to work’ states in the south like Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama. It’s the unions that killed the industry in Michigan. Under the North American Free Trade Agreement’s content rules, 62.5% of the net cost of the auto & light truck, transmission and engine must be attributable to North American inputs that are subject to tracing all the way up the production & supply chain. I think labour force participation rates continue to decline because too many of us expect all the benefits without any of the work. We would rather penalize people for being successful than encourage them to make the economy more productive. If people could keep more of what they earned, maybe we’d invent more people to join the labor force ?
#2 YOU”RE Wrong. Read my post.
“(this post is not against any foreign owned auto makers that employee US citizens in plants on our soil-they do the right thing)”
Sorry #3, you said “USA manufacturers of metal, plastic, paints, glues, interior parts, engines, transmissions, differentials, radios etc do not participate in the supply chain. These essential industries are dying.” That’s just wrong. There are 9 new ethylene plants alone being built in the gulf coast today. That’s used for PVC pipes, plastics, adhesives, you name it. There are lots of jobs being created in the US auto industry & it’s supply chain, too. Just not where tree are unions and collective bargaining rights. Blame the unions, not foreign cars.
“lots of jobs” really?
https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htm#emp_state
That’s more auto jobs created in even in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana than in all industries in NJ !
When you buy a foreign car built overseas, you contribute to the problem of job losses.
I always laugh when I see you limousine liberals driving a Lexus, Porsche, , Mercedes etc with your Obama/Biden bumper stickers.
You’re a bunch of hypocrites.
I’m not pro-union, but I don’t have time for your BS propaganda.
many “foreign cars” models including BMW, Mercedes, VW ,and Honda to name a few are US built
I am aware of that.
My post stated “When you buy a foreign car built overseas, “.
Ahhh James, while what you say is factual, the “Profit” still goes overseas to the parent company. Still a bad deal for America.
but the jobs , plant and investment stay here
We have a U.S. based company called Tesla trying to build luxury electric vehicles in the U.S., but some states, including NJ, would rather protect the vested auto dealer’s network than allow for an innovative American start-up to succeed with their own showrooms. Look it up, you couldn’t make up something more absurd if you tried. Politicians + vested interests = bad policy for the future. And there we go again bashing anyone who drives a foreign-built luxury car as a “limosine liberal”. Shouldn’t we encourage successful people ? They are the ones who actually pay the taxes that fund all of the promises our politicians have made to the cost centers of the economy.