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Key Coronavirus Model has Lowered its Estimate of Total U.S. Deaths

the staff of the Ridgewood blog

Seattle Wa , a key coronavirus model has lowered its estimate of total U.S. deaths in its latest projection of how many will die due to the contagious virus.The revision will likely fuel criticism from skeptics that initial projections were overblown, and one that government leaders may use to say that efforts to combat the spread are working.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) lowered its projection of total deaths from 68,841 (with an estimate range of 30,188 to 175,965) to just over 60,308 (with an estimate range of 34,063 to 140,381) in an update published Friday.

IHME estimates for total US deaths have been revised downward based in part on newly available cell phone data that provide a window on mobility patterns. These data suggest that mobility and presumably social contact have declined in certain states earlier than the organization’s modeling predicted, especially in the South.

IHME also announced that the number of daily COVID-19 deaths in the US may have peaked two days ago, April 15, with 2,481 deaths. The peak does not include earlier presumptive cumulative COVID-19 deaths reported yesterday by New York City. The Institute now is estimating 60,308 (estimated range of 34,063 to 140,381) deaths across the US by August 4, down from 68,841 as predicted on April 13.

“We are seeing the numbers decline because some state and local governments, and, equally important, individuals around the country have stepped up to protect their families, their neighbors, and friends and coworkers by reducing physical contact,” said IHME Director Christopher Murray. “Now, the challenge – as well as opportunity – is for states to figure out how to reopen the US economy and allow people to get back to work without sacrificing that progress. Relaxing social distancing too soon carries great risks of a resurgence of new infections. No one wants to see this vicious cycle repeating itself.”

One thought on “Key Coronavirus Model has Lowered its Estimate of Total U.S. Deaths

  1. More proof….. MASSIVE OVERREACTION to COVID-19 (aka Wuhan Flu)

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