Simply put..People will sell and move..lock in gains here and bank that result into a lower taxed town and in some cases another State.Boomers will avalanche out of here in the next 5 years.School issues costs and declining standings are a ticking time bomb..
Hasn’t this kind of population flow been happening in a large scale all over NJ? This is normal. Gen X will be hot on their heels, once our kids are out on their own.
Ridgewood is a great town to raise kids. Low crime, a downtown with things to do – not that teenagers would ever be satisfied with anything, of course. But it’s better than hanging around the Blue Moon parking lot in Wykoff, for example. The schools are all 9s and 10s according to Zillow, which means people will pay a premium to live here.
But by all means, keep messing with the teachers, and cut school funding. See how that works out.
The exodus will be compounded by the absence of a replacement cohort. Wall St comp and employment has dropped many notches and headed further down. Same with pharma – another prominent NJ employer. Tech of offsetting some of the decline by most of the younger people employed there prefer to stay closer to the city and in more apartment like setups. not in larger single family housing.
TAXES!
I am out in 12 months. Five bedrooms will be attractive to a large family.
Nonsense.
A bit overstated. Half this demographic (b. 1945-1955) has already moved on as the overwhelming majority of those folks had their last kid before 1998 meaning the last of their kids is out of HS. Sure there are many boomers still left in Ridgewood and older boomers who have not yet moved on (and may never do so), but enough have moved on from the first half of the boom (b. 1945-1955) that at least with regard to the Ridgewood real estate market this cohort does not represent a major market overhang. Certainly, I see nothing about the next 5 years that would make the migration more material than the last five years have been.
@4:01 – You are missing many things.
1) Historicall (pre-07) people still hung around because home prices were going up. 2% a year in taxes does not matter as long as your house’s value is going by by 6-7% a year. Home prices are at best flat now, if not declining. The 2.5% and ever growing property tax is coming out of people’s pockets now.
2) Wall St (finance generally) was on a 30 year tear till 2007. That is the NYC area’s main driver. Accordingly, the riches drifted to places like Ridgewood. That gig is OVER. I work in the industry – trust me. That gig is done. People are lucky to hang on to their jobs, forget compensation. The replacement tech folks want to live in ‘city-like’ environments. Condo prices in NYC and surrounding towns have gone up at double-digit rates per year for 4-5 years running now. Home prices are at best flat in Ridgewood.
3) Schools are not a function of teachers, they are a function of students. Being a top school district attracts parents who are interested in education, and that is a self reinforcing dynamic. The reverse is also true – once you drop out of the top rankings, you stop attracting top students. Ridgewood is no longer a ‘top school district’ compared to places like Teaneck, Short Hills, Baskin Ridge etc.
4) Ridgewood taxes are higher (on a % of property market value basis) than even Short Hills, let alone neighborhood Bergen County towns, all with similarly rated schools. And despite paying higher taxes than everywhere else, and more than ever paid in Ridgewood’s history, you have greedy teachers striking and looking for various ways to make life difficult for students as payback. And this will only get worse once Obamacare taxes kick in and the teachers force taxpayers to pick up the 40% excise tax tab on their platinum insurance plans.
So to summarize,
1) The main supporting industry is in sharp decline
2) Home prices are no longer increasing
3) Taxes are at national highs and only likely to increase further
4) School district ranking is falling and will get worse
This combination has not existed so far. In fact, the reverse did. That was history. This is reality.
I curse the day I bought a house in the place. My kids are still too young so I am likely stuck, and am going to live through the decline. Assuming, of course, my industry even has a place for me till then.
This same story runs every couple of years. Taxes are high, kids graduate…parents move on.
Some of us stay and keep the place running. Support the Board of Ed…..where can I get a sign for my lawn?
@5:24, if your children are still young you can go! Go now, before they are too old to move easily…
5:24- “Home prices are no longer increasing.” If you talk to the local real estate people they will tell you that it really depends on the particular segment of the market you are talking about. Under $650,000, in good condition, will likely get multiple offers. That has been true for the last 6 mos. What has also been true since the peak about 10 yrs. ago is that there have not been too many towns in the country where you have seen a “6-7% per year increase.” It’s a cycle, like any other market.
Oh, I think you mean Tenafly, not Teaneck.
Home prices in Ridgewood are AT BEST flat, yet property taxes keep going up a few percent every year, i.e. Wealth effect going the wrong way. What further evidence do you need? Prospective buyers will be scared away by that fact and by the declining schools.
11:23- “Flat” as compared to what ? If you are saying you can’t get more for your house (under $650,000) this year than what you could get last year, I think you are wrong, at least in most cases. If you have a lousy location, didn’t keep it up, etc. then maybe not. Again, it depends on the segment of the market. The truth is, as it should be in any market, the supply is not meeting the demand, at least in the under $650,000 category.
When Energy costs normalize and spike up in the next Five to Seven years then taxes for all these leaky schools and administrative buildings and for the fleets of municipal Trucks ,Cars will skyrocket,Out labor costs seem to be lockedIn so guess who will be on the hook for normal and hyper-normal energy ,heating ,cooling ,automotive and town equipment fill ups.We are not dealing with the fact that the Village cost basis is too high and unsustainable.SERVICES Sharing Consolidation of emergency assets and organizations amongst the bergen county towns might be our only option to manage costs and that will still mean higher taxes from Today. Many will see the tax horizon is not friendly to retirement budgets and some will get out early.Town still has a responsibility to outline Risks and start dealing with the hard issues now.Town pensions alone are alarming to current and future Taxpayers ..likely unsustainable.
No nest egg for emergencies but countless pointless expensive projects–bike lane/underpass, plans to concretize Memorial Park at Van Neste Square, more. It’s how you spend what you have that counts.
Under $650,000 Bill H? That’s below the average assessed home value on the Village which is almost $700,000… what a joke.
My house is assessed at $636,000 and we pay $15,000 in taxes. That will certainly scare any buyer away!
12:33-Sounds like you’re in the group that paid way too much.No offense, but if you are paying attention to the “average” cost, good luck.